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LEADERS
International LEADERS Calling Market Crashes Years Ahead
Second to None, Anywhere...
'Warned 2000 tech slide; predicted 2008 meltdown in 2007. Forecasted 2020 global economic collapse in 2011, AND NOW- BY 2050 - THE MOTHER OF ALL CRASHES"
Being an active online professional education student at Stanford U; I am routinely invited to their newest and greatest - FREE Learning Webinars; similar to the Storytelling Course linked below. Who amongst us could not be better at storytelling?
For starters, it is a key skill that can be practically applied to help get ordinary folks, political/legal charlatans, and corrupt crony governments - out of or into a lot of jams, such as; the US Dollar Reserve Currency Hoax, BlockChainLies, AIFraud, Worthless Bitcoin Bubbles, and other contemporary, global Ponzi-based schemes that insanely grow by leaps and bounds daily. Seemingly, caused by a more desperate and disillusioned world impossibly clinging to its fading economic stability and last remaining supplies of non-renewable natural resources. Hmm...
The Negative-Sum Games We Play - Economics 101
However, there is still nothing like a profound, motivating, creative story that inspires perspiration from the masses or individuals - remember those big ole fish stories, or when and how we fought that Grizzly bear with our bear (sic) hands in the Alberta Rockies?
Key Takeaway: Don't ever underestimate powerful storytelling talents, spin-doctor applications, and their contagious fire-side chat results - for as long as there are still bigger fools out there to convince,the right stories - will always foolishly move vulnerable nations and people; and thereby their real concrete resources and trillions in fiat currencies...
Learn how to craft compelling stories that take listeners on a journey that changes how they think, feel, or act. Through the power of story, you’ll discover how to inspire transformational change and spark innovation in your company.
Good Tidings,
Terry
P.S. - Never forget that old adage that stems from the dawn of time - 'B\S Baffles Brains' - now we even teach it at the professional level at our top schools - what next?
Your comments, experiences, and insights are most welcome.
Here is The New York Times article that highlights the current treatments under study or approved by the FDA. I suspect that BIG Pharma will try and squash any successful cure or treatment because it would kill their criminal Multi-trillion-dollar Golden Vaccines Goose. We should never forget AND NOT BE FOOLED by this industry's sociopathic executives who are just the worst villains and criminal drug peddlers imaginable dressed in Armani suits. They should all be prosecuted and tried for genocide and other crimes against humanity at the Hague.We can do much better than this...
The Covid-19 pandemic is one of the greatest challenges modern medicine has ever faced. Doctors and scientists are scrambling to find treatments and drugs that can save the lives of infected people and perhaps even prevent them from getting sick in the first place.
Below is an updated list of 24 of the most-talked-about treatments for the coronavirus. While some are accumulating evidence that they’re effective, most are still at early stages of research. We also included a warning about a few that are just bunk. Read More Below.
The question is why do we overpopulate? Because it is evidenced to be innate in biological entities to comply with the universal laws of entropy and consume more energy to survive and procreate for another day. It is an endless battle - as chaos drives the pursuit to grow, acquire. and use more energy to return the systems to a temporary equilibrium. Only to start the cycle once again.
We observe this phenomenon in the smallest of cell constructs to the largest of vertebrate creatures (remember the mice utopia experiment) - ultimately they outgrow their respective habitats and go extinct. I have seen no evidence anywhere in the universe that any biological construct has dispensation from the laws and cycle of entropy and thus its consequential guaranteed final outcome - EXTINCTION
In the end, all biological constructs are imprisoned in a Devil's Bargain that cannot be breached or voided to avoid its slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune.
T A McNeil
CEO Founder
First Financial Insights Inc
There Are Exponential Limits to Growth We Cannot Defeat.
Pandemics are a mere pimple on the back of an elephant when compared to the possibility of the Arctic Melting and causing a Blue Ocean Event later this year - which in turn could cause a rise in temperatures of 6 degrees C or more.
This would exacerbate the climate chaos and extreme weather patterns already being experienced and in all likelihood lead to the extinction of all vertebrate animals on the planet. This abrupt change in climate compares to that experienced during the Permian extinction when 90% of life on Earth perished. In short, we have much bigger fish to fry - much more than pimples on an elephant's back.
Moreover, we should not lose sight of the looming energy and resource crisis that is bound to take hold in the next decade. Once the fossil fuels and other critical minerals are depleted there is no way for society to feed its huge energy appetite - economic and social collapse are imminent just as forecasted in 1972 by 27 researchers at MIT in their best selling book - 30 million copies - Limits to Growth.
Hence if the Arctic melt and Blue Ocean Event does not cause our collapse; then Mother Nature has a backstop of depleting all our critical energy and mineral resources in the not too distant future. One might say - Mother Nature Bats Last.
In summary, it's time to stop fretting about relatively little pimples and to take a perspective of the whole elephant for what it is and says - we have MUCH BIGGER fish to fry...
To be short (pun intended) we are extremely nervous about the valuation of TESLA and its future prospects:
First, going to Mars is an insane project as it cannot be justified in terms of net positive energy and materials returns. There is no mathematical and physical modeling evidence that projects a positive profit of energy and material being returned to Earth, Such adventures are thus an ongoing liability to our planet and will ultimately cause an energy and material bankruptcy making this planet uninhabitable. Fix Earth first or also build underwater cities similar to what you would build on other planets is another option.
Consumer demand for autos and other big-ticket items is expected to decline rapidly as inflation takes hold in key commodities after the COVID pandemic. China is already seeing this with a reported inflation rate of 9.9% not seen in 13 years. Many industrial (copper) and agricultural (soybeans) commodities have doubled in the past 12 months. Prices are rising and long bond markets confirm investor affirmations of inflationary pressures.
Massive fiscal spending and the emergence of crypto-currencies are stealing both income and sales taxes from struggling state and federal governments and could cause the US dollar to lose its reserve currency status bringing about hyperinflation making these high-end businesses like Tesla almost impossible to viably operate. Yet, Tesla exacerbates this currency demise by unwisely buying $1.5 BILLION of these Dutch tulip bulb currencies.
Expensive EV s are particularly not sustainable and have a limited future for three key reasons. Consumers will not have the purchasing power to acquire these vehicles as hyperinflation erodes their wealth. The electrical GRID is not built to supply the huge power surge needed and ironically requires fossil fuels to do so. Green Energy is a pipe dream; at best, because we will soon run out of all key industrial materials needed to build EVs, solar panels, and wind turbines by 2050, Moreover there just is not enough space available for these devices as we cannot afford to use up more farmland needed to feed the rapidly growing populations.
China is the wild card on a number of fronts - reports are they are developing a mini EV to be priced under $5,000 - guess where the market is heading?
Putting $1.5 billion of stakeholders' capital at risk in crypto-currencies makes one wonder as it deviates from sensible and wise business strategies professed by Peter Druker et al - stick to what you know and your core business and customers - when companies deviate from this adage it tells us there is something seriously financially wrong in its core businesses and their creative powers and business opportunities have been tapped - often leading to bankruptcy. ( GM, GE, Polaroid, IBM etc.) Not good especially when management thinks an asset allocation of scarce resources to the Dutch tulip bulb speculation is much better than an investment in the core activities they know so much about. This contradictory misstep in judgment speaks volumes.
All is not well in the Executive ranks too - the company just lost one of its top auto executives. When top guns leave a prima donna money-making company you know that the house of cards may be perched on very thin threads. Imagine if Charlie Munger left Buffet - the answer in both cases is clearly that - the writing is now on the wall as the rats are first to leave a sinking ship.
We could go on and on as to the poor prospects and bad management issues, but let's get to the short (sic) of it all - the Company clearly suffers from the bankruptcy of common sense - and the only problem with common sense is -
' it is just not so common "
Ta
T.A McNeil
June 8, 2021
Famed Investor from ¨The Big Sort places $534M bebet on TESLA
San Jose native Michael Burry was a former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market's plunge that set the stage for the Great Recession.
By Cromwell Schubarth – TechFlash Editor, Silicon Valley Business Journal
The San Jose native took a short position in Tesla that was worth about $534 million at the end of the first quarter.
Asked about whether Tesla will fade or be absorbed he answered: Who would want it?
Bob Lutz recently was a guest of the MotoMan Studio in an interesting episode about the automotive industry (mostly the established carmakers and their future). Only a small part of the talk (from 45:00) was about Tesla, but it was "a hell of a ride".
First of all, Bob Lutz, a former top leader of Ford, Chrysler and GM, is very skeptical and sometimes also derisive about Tesla. He's been this way for years.
Lutz's general conclusion is that Tesla is doomed, and it might happen sooner rather than later. But if Tesla is poised to fail, what will be its future? Bankruptcy or acquisition (by some other carmaker)? Bob Lutz answers "Who would want it?". Is Bob Lutz entitled to say things like that about Tesla?In Lutz's opinion, there are many problems with Tesla, including:
they will fail, because of the "continued lack of profitability", "stocks gonna tank" and it will be difficult to raise more cash, especially if Elon Musk will undermine investor confidence
"All they have are some good-looking electric cars that sell below cost"
Tesla doesn't have unique technology, they are using the same lithium-ion technology as everybody else
Every other manufacturer will introduce a 300+ mile electric car on the market (there will be no advantage)
zero-emission credits as a source of revenues (in the U.S.) and in Europe (deal with FCA) will dry too
Other manufacturers are forced to produce a certain amount of EVs, so they will do it, even at a loss, and then recoup the cost on conventional models (this is a major factor behind the rising prices on crossovers/SUVs and full-size pickups). For Tesla, it's a lot of EV competition.
Another problem is too many employees at the plants (in particular at the Tesla Factory - currently closed)
The vertical integration is wrong, as you not only spend precious capital instead of ordering stuff from suppliers, but also will be required to keep investing to stay competitive with external suppliers of the rest of the industry
Well... that is a strong, pessimistic voice. Hopefully, Tesla will survive in a good shape, improving its weaker points (as some are real), as the times ahead are very challenging.
WATCH VIDEO
Bob Lutz: Tesla Is Doomed And Here Is Why - InsideEVs
One of our greatest fears since the 2008 meltdown was to see oil prices return to $100 per barrel or more - as many experts concluded that it was a primary factor behind the financial crisis. Since then it appeared that the supply-demand balance would keep prices well below $60 per barrel; even trading at one point in the negatives. But that expectation now seems fool-hardy and a long-distant memory, as oil prices, along with other industrial and agricultural commodities have soared, and in some cases doubled, in the past 12 months.
Why? There are a number of political, economic, and physical factors causing the shortage of supply but the truth be known we have little faith in the reported oil reserves and the expected Net EROI - meaning that all proven and probable reserves may not be recoverable because the marginal energy cost of recovery faces rapidly diminishing returns. Moreover, OPEC reserve numbers are highly suspect and thought by many to be wildly overstated with Venezuela being the OPEC poster boy in this case.
Let us not forget that when it comes to supply there are the known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown, knowns. But lastly; and most importantly, are the unknown unknowns -and that is what we are facing here - meaning the potential for another meltdown driven by oil prices going to $250 per barrel or more is in the cards.
And so are the severe social, political, and economic cosequences.
T A McNeil
June 8, 2021
OIL PRICE.COM INTELLIGENCE REPORT
JUNE 8, 2021
Greetings from London.
In today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
Chart of the Week
- More than half of Vietnam’s electricity comes from coal.
- But renewables are growing quickly, and now make up 5% of the total.
- Vietnam plans on adding nearly 18 GW of solar over this decade but will need to build out its grid capacity.
Market Movers
- Plains All American (NASDAQ: PAA) agreed to sell its natural gas storage assets to Hartree Partners for $850 million.
- Pembina Pipeline (NYSE: PBA) announced a partnership with the Haisla Nation to develop the $3 billion Cedar LNG project in British Columbia.
- KKR's Independence Energy and Contango Oil & Gas (NYSE:MCF) are near a merger deal that could value the new business at $5.5B including debt, Bloomberg reports.
Tuesday, June 8, 2021
Oil prices held their gains at the start of the week, with Brent at $71 and WTI just below $70 (after briefly touching that threshold on Monday). Analysts see investors pocketing gains at these roughly two-and-a-half-year highs, allowing the rally to take a breather.
Oil pauses at $70. “For many, the $70 per barrel oil signal may be enough for investors to cash out of the bull cycle early – likely what happened today -- which would stifle the upward price trajectory forecasted by our bullish crude balances,” said Louise Dickson, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
Options bets on $100 oil. Investors are scooping up options bets on crude that pay off if oil prices soar to $100 per barrel.
OPEC lost $1 trillion in the 2015 oil price crash. The members of OPEC lost a collective $1 trillion in foregone revenues during the last crisis in 2015 and 2016. With the Covid-19 crisis hitting the oil industry a lot harder than the 2014-2016 crisis, chances are the losses that OPEC producers suffered last year would be even greater than $1 trillion, but these are still being calculated.
G-7 backs climate disclosures. G-7 nations backed initiatives to force banks and companies to disclose their climate-related risks.
Shell case could affect TotalEnergies. The recent court case in the Netherlands that went against Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) could be a warning to Total Energies SE (NYSE: TOT), the French oil giant that was known as Total until a rebranding last week. A French court is expected to make a decision on a similar case in September.
Rosneft warns of oil shortage. Rosneft warned that the global push towards energy transition could result in a supply shortage if there is too little upstream development for new oil supplies. “The world risks a severe deficit of oil and gas,” Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said. “The world consumes oil, but isn’t ready to invest in it.”
Texas passes weatherization bill. The Texas legislature passed a bill that would require electricity providers to weatherize their assets, and it now goes to the Governor for consideration.
Higher oil prices boost M&A. Higher oil prices offer oil companies and private equity firms the opportunity to sell off U.S. shale assets. In the first five months of 2021, land deals have totaled $6.9 billion, nearly as much as the $7 billion in total deals for all of 2020.
Fiat announces EV-only transition. Fiat said it would sell only electric vehicles by 2030 and begin a phaseout of the internal combustion engine beginning in 2025.
Canada’s oil consolidation hits white-collar jobs. BNN Bloomberg looks at the loss of jobs among management in Canada’s oil and gas sector as the industry has consolidated in recent years.
U.S. LNG terminals looking at carbon capture. Under pressure from investors and the Biden administration, several U.S. LNG export facilities are exploring carbon capture. Virginia-based Venture Global LNG said it would implement carbon capture and sequestration at three export terminals in Louisiana. But 60% of a project’s emissions come from upstream and midstream – leaking methane at well sites and in pipelines.
LNG faces headwinds. U.S. LNG exports face multiple headwinds, including surplus supply, rising costs “fickle” demand, and surging Qatari investment, according to a new report.
BP CEO: Strong Oil Demand Growth Is Here To Stay. Global oil demand is set to rebound and remain robust for some time, BP’s chief executive Bernard Looney told Bloomberg News on the sidelines of an economic forum in Russia, reiterating views expressed by most forecasters and analysts. “There is a lot of evidence that suggests that demand will be strong, and the shale seems to be remaining disciplined,” Looney said.
Pipeline regulator tells pipelines to prepare for methane regs. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) sent an advisory to oil and gas pipeline operators, telling them to prepare for methane curbs.
Enbridge sees big protests of Line 3. Indigenous communities and environmental activists blockaded sections of the Line 3 pipeline in northern Minnesota.
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hits a record high. The amount of carbon dioxide piling up in Earth’s atmosphere set a record last month, rising to 417 parts per million, the highest in human history.
DOE announces hydrogen “Earthshot.” The Department of Energy launched an “Earthshot” program to cut the costs of hydrogen to $1 per kilogram within a decade.
State Department says Nord Stream 2 “fait accompli.” U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany a “fait accompli” and said the U.S. is now working with Germany to limit how dependent Europe’s energy system will be on Russia after it is finished.
U.S. claws back millions from ransomware. The FBI has seized $2.3 million of the $4.4 million paid to the ransomware attackers of the Colonial Pipeline.
China’s Efforts To Curb Oil Prices Are Futile. Crude oil imports into China dropped by almost 15 percent annually last month. There is speculation that China is tapping its strategic reserve to tamp down on import costs, although it isn’t working.
How oil companies use bankruptcy law to avoid cleanup. Oil and gas companies use the bankruptcy process to shed liabilities. “It's basically bankruptcy for profit.” Here’s how they do it.
Here are a few other articles in case you missed it:
That’s all from your midweek intelligence report, we hope you enjoyed it and we´ll be back on Friday, with your latest energy market update, industry intelligence, and special report.
