#Facebook Executive Dumps Shares

Facebook Executive Dumps Shares

One primary rule of investing - when the Company's top executives start dumping their shares, it's time to head for the hills. We are not going to set out all the reasons why and all the excuses executives use to justify their dispositions. Nope, instead we are going to ask you to look at the fellow captioned above and ask "what if this guy started dumping shares in that small town company from Omaha?" 

Never happened, and if it did - you know that the flood waters are really coming. 

It all boils down to how do you believe in folks that do not believe in themselves? Just plain-old folksy small-town stuff. There is however - one City-slicker - Jimmy Rogers, who thinks that Facebook is not an investment,its a waste of time. We agreed with him then, and still do. 

This also may explain why Facebook users are so depressed - they finally figured out Jim's astute observation.

Stockholders may soon join its users, as t is still just a click away from ten or less, on the Ticker. 

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

First Financial Insights

August 14, 2013 

WISE GUY

" Facebook is not an investment, it's a waste of time" 

US Population Distribution by Age (1900 -2060) - Calculated Risk

U.S. Population Distribution by Age (1900 -2060) - Calculated Risk

Looking at this moving graph gives you that sinking dizzy feeling after a while, but nonetheless it is interesting from a general point of view. The baby boom and subsequent bust are obvious as well as the general flattening of the distribution over time as medical health care improves. By 2060, the vast majority are over 21 years old - that should shape into different consumption patterns.

Moreover, more breakdowns would be useful such as income, education, origin, gender, geography, and occupation, amoung other attributes. Calculated Risk provides its own observations.

But lets not forget the most important factors are the growing population numbers and diminishing resources (wealth dilution), that makes immigration of any sort economically illogical. What corporate entity gives away its shares for free and dilutes its current stakeholders' wealth? None! Down the road, as this issue becomes more apparent, then the levying of hefty "Immigration  Taxes" of say a $100,000 per applicant or higher, starts to.make a whole lot of sense as a way earn revenues to balance fiscal budgets, sustain taxes and keep the dilution of real national wealth in check

This form of tax recognises that the ideals of three hundred years ago no longer apply in a shrinking world, where key resources grow scarcer by the moment. To do otherwise, exposes nations to the greater possibilties of social unrest and political upheaval as austerities unfold  - when the planet's capacity to deliver the essentials of living is curtailed.

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

First Financial Insights

August 8, 2013

Growing sentiment for taxation fairness

The Marc Faber Blog : Somewhere down the line we will have a Massive Wealth Destruction

The Marc Faber Blog: Somewhere down the line we will have a Massive Wealth Destruction

Just a short post noting that Marc's 50% prediction is in line with what we suggest is a possible valuation adjustment in our July 17th comments on Paul Krugman's Blog - Prophecies of Maestrodamus.

Not a hard one to figure out as it is really just "present value mathematics" whereby if long 30 year bond rates double, then their market value dips by 50%. Very straightforward mathematics that no amount of economic theory nor policy measures can override as it is simply a hard conceptual constraint. Mathematics cannot be persuaded, legislated nor negotiated with - and that should come as no surprise to anyone.

Down the line, looks to be a scary turbulent road ahead. 

We will post more comments from this blog later on.

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
July 21, 2013

What waits down the line?

The Paul Krugman Blog - Rationality of the Euro

The Paul Krugman Blog - Rationality of the Euro

These comments reflect more on economics and thought-process rather than  markets, however that is what defines the markets when all is said and done.

Britain was certainly on the right track when it decided not to participate in the European experiment. And it remains shocking that Poland is seeking membership in this club, given the mess and clear failure of this project. What is it about Polish people? There is something that we just do not understand. All we can say, is that too often we give up long-term advantages, in order to remedy a short-term problem.

Why did the Brits decide not to join the club - by gosh, as Paul sarcastically notes in his New York tone, they did some "analysis." No one else apparently does? This point, in itself, raises some fascinating considerations when in comes to expressions such as: "they did their homework," "paralysis through analysis" analysed to death" and so on, and so forth. In fact, just writing about it makes one wonder and come to believe that analysis is much more perpetual in motion than stoic; as new ideas, devices, facts and knowledge is brought to the awareness of our cognitive processes. Particularly, for complex situations where the deterministic and subjective variables are always in a dynamic state of change, with the possibility of even  two opposites co-existing as truths at the same or different times. Go figure - the movie never ends !

So you see there is enough material here to write at least ten, five hundred page, books about the analysis of analysis. What is the right amount? the right tools? the right perspective? Or how about  analyzing the initial diagnostics and its tools - if its wrong, then so should be the supporting analysis. Then, there are the assumptions and we can assume that most people have different ones - or can we? The point being, do we ever really know if we are doing the most relevant  diagnosis, analysis and evaluation of goal, facts and constraints leading to the optimal solution for a moment or forever? I have a funny feeling that such knowledge is impossible to attain, except for those who command the arrogance to think otherwise.Why? Because they know, they know everything. 

In the end, this is a "very serious" topic and process, as it defines the fate of individuals, economies, businesses and our species in so many other ways. The case of Britain, supposedly doing the right analysis once, contrasts with years of bad analysis, that saw their Empire rise and fall, from being a political, economic and military powerhouse, to what it is today, and the tomorrows to come. Should we blame it on the analysis?

 Probably, but you may never know for sure!

First Financial Insights 
July 6, 2012

New Yorkers, eh!

ANALYZE THIS BUDDY !

The Dr Peter G Kinesa Blog : ALL ECONOMISTS ARE WRONG - DEAD WRONG

The Dr Peter G Kinesa Blog : ALL ECONOMISTS ARE WRONG - DEAD WRONG: Captain, My Captain... ALL  ECONOMISTS ARE WRONG – DEAD WRONG! Why we are in this mess: Where did it all begin? Why? ..

Good  time to do a little report and see if their is any evidence that would suggest that Economists are right, and perhaps this conclusion is wrong. Let's see there's Europe, Cyprus, Egypt, Brazil, China, Japan, Greece, and, and, and...

Then, of course, there's the Fed and the interest rate trap ready to launch us into an asset deflation spiral. As well as, overpopulation, unbridled growth, biosphere devastation and exponential resource exhaustion. Hmm. Not much has changed, so....

ALL ECONOMISTS ARE STILL WRONG!

First Financial Insights
July 5, 2013 

Not that way- your other RIGHT!

The Dr Peter G Kinesa Blog : Human Longevity OR Unbridled Growth??

The Dr Peter G Kinesa Blog : Human Longevity OR Unbridled Growth??: WHAT IS OUR GOAL: HUMAN LONGEVITY OR UNBRIDLED GROWTH? 

Stars of what we are...bringing them back into our arms -

Every now and then it is a good idea to return to prior article and look at it with a older set of eyes to discover if your thoughts and ideas have been changed, modified or turned upside down in some strange way. In this case, very little has changed and there is a strong belief that to have a shot at the universe -  the orientation of humanity's goals must be towards its longevity; not just the absurdity of growth for the sake of growth.

Again, the mathematics speaks in a way that words cannot convey, insofar as the algebra of population and resources can define our visitig rights on this planet. Obviously, the lower the population levels, the greater the time we should have as a species, with all other things remaining equal. Then! And only then, could we come to know what is unknown, a path less chosen and yet to be discovered.

Why not? For that is what makes all the difference.

First Financial Insights  
July 4, 2013

Moving hearts is like trying to catch a star - bringing their minds into its heart; back where it belongs...

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Gold: Keynes’s ‘Barbarous Relic’

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Gold: Keynes’s ‘Barbarous Relic’: “Gold remains John Maynard Keynes’s ‘barbarous relic,’ with no intrinsic value and used mainly as a hedge against mostly irrational fear and...

Rarely, do we ever agree whole-heartily with leading economists, except when it comes to Gold! There is a common ground existing amoung them, including Keynes, Roubini, Kinesa, Krugman and others, who ALL see no sense in its perceived value nor in its ongoing extraction from the ground - just to store most of it underground again. Does this sound insane? It certainly is.

Some would argue that gold has commercial value that partly legitimizes its mining. Well, our analysis indicates that enough gold is already mined and stored to satisfy commercial needs for the next 400 years. Considering that oil reserves will most likely be depleted within 50 years, thereby changing forever our way of life - this argument mathematically and clearly backfires on its supporters. For is it not utterly foolish to continue mining a mineral and wasting valuable non-renewables for a element with little practical value? Can we not see how analogous this is to cutting down the last tree on Easter Island only to erect one final statue? While answers to these questions are obvious - not much has changed nor been learnt since that famous last tree was cut so many years ago.

It is also said that an ancient Apache warrior once warned that the white eye would waste all the land and water. How right he may be!

Gold Bugs, however positively assert - this is an element with "intrinsic value". This phrase is a clever and ambiguous linguistic device, but what creates this abstract intrinsic and invisible value? A simple neurological answer is our imagination. Cognition's formed by the mass and energy particles of the mind that further triggers an arbitrary feel of a good sensation somewhere in the primal inner cortex. Without this electro-chemical reaction and resultant sensations, this element thus has virtually no value or benefits related to the short, near or long-term survival needs of our species. For some reason that old saying comparing Gold's utility to the anatomical parts on a Bull is meaningful here.

So in the end we hypothesize that as scarce non-resources move towards their inevitable exhaustion, Gold will lose its comparative purchasing power. And, moreover, there is ample evidence to verify this assertion. For instance, in 1979, when Gold peaked at around $1000 ounce it would acquire over 50 barrels of oil. Today, with oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel, an ounce of gold barely acquires 14 barrels. If that surprises you, try this calculation with cost of a hamburger or cup of coffee.

So down the road as arable land, water and other non-renewables are exhausted, gold's value should gravitate to zero. Assuming, of course; that we return to sanity and realize that cutting down the last tree goes beyond absurd. If not, the Apache warrior's prediction is not just going to be right - he will be right!

First Financial Insights

June 26, 2013

Golden whispers sing, touching the land and wind...

Jim Rogers : I am making sure I don’t have too much money in any one specific bank account anywhere in the world

Jim Rogers : I am making sure I don’t have too much money in any one specific bank account anywhere in the world

Jim it is not about the bank accounts, that's the easy one to figure out. You cannot short bank accounts. But, you can short currencies, bonds and a variety of financial intermediaries and their related securities. You got to have a sneaking suspicion that is where the bucks can be made. Maybe Jim will say something once he has his positions in place?

Where should we do our homework, anyways? Let me see there's the EU, Banks, Insurers, Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc, etc,


May 15, 2013

"and that's the long and short of it"

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Video: Market Outlook: THU

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Video: Market Outlook: THU 04 APR 13 | 03:45 PM ET: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics, discusses China and Japan, and explains whether he sti...

After a while these television economists start to sound so programmed with their rhetoric the words start to blend together and sound phonetically like blah, blah, blah. The accent does spice it a bit though. And most of what is being said is trade oriented and short-term focused - less than two years. Not surprisingly, there is little reference to Cyprus and the complete boon-dongle this was for the EU. No mention made of what could happen to EU bond markets and how that could spread to equities and bond markets around the world.That's shocking, as there is still global contageon potential here.

To be short, Nouriel's TV shows has entertainment value but offers very little to the serious long-term investor. If he could, or did offer such value; then he would not an economist. That's our read on it.

May 21, 2013

"TA-DA"

 

Thanks Folks...

Niall Ferguson (Video) : Post-American World a New Dark Age ?

Niall Ferguson (Video)  : Post-American World a New Dark Age ?

Who knows? First, it is difficult to make any sort of comparison to the Roman Empire for a thousand reasons. Niall is right in stating, that it basically launched Europe into the Dark Ages with little impact on the rest of the planet. The British Empire has fallen with little impact on the state of global society, as there were others there to pick up the ball. So even, a substantive decline or fall of the American Empire is not of great concern to global society, as there are many in the wings ready to step in and provide a leading role on a combined or singular basis. The world will go on.

The bigger concern is the fall of the "global industrial-financial complex" that is not run by geographic political states, but a collection of multi-national entities operating without borders. It is an invisible political state that operates organically without the protocols that have defined geographic political states. It is the collective inertia, infrastructures and outputs of the business and economic community for our global village. It is a ghostly enigma, but nonetheless exists by virtue of long-standing practises and inter-connections that are entrenched among nations around the planet.

It has no flag, no symbols, no constitution, no formal codes and no figurehead as leader. It cannot  be attacked geographically or otherwise.Yet, as world leaders certainly come to understand, it is an entity that must be recognized and dealt with using practical diplomacy. It is topic reaching far beyond these comments.

The point being, it is when this "Invisible Empire" falls, then humanity as a whole would enters a Dark Age similar to regional historic periods. Triggers for this collapse, could come from breakdowns in global finance, international trade, bio-sphere devastation or the shortages of the physical ingredients required to keep a "global industrial-financial complex" running. Most likely, any of these cases or combinations, would lead to horrific global hostilities.

The next dark age may occur sooner than any of us expect, lasting longer than can be imagined. This planet is a small island in the universe, isolated from neighboring entities offering alternative possibilities for existence. And we have seen what happens to small isolated islands. 

Through-out  history empires rise and fall, there is little to believe that this one is any different - a sobering thought.

May  9, 2013

The  Invisible Empire?

Jim Rogers Blog - Cyprus Sets The Standard For Other Countries To Seize Bank Deposits In Future

Jim Rogers Blog - Cyprus Sets The Standard For Other Countries To Seize Bank Deposits In Future

Monarchs did this many times through-out history - not a new story really. What Jim did not emphasise is that Central Banks who can print their own fiat currencies are taxing away our savings, investments and wealth through this method of debasing indirect taxation. There are quietly confiscating your assets to bailout banks, pay excessive bonuses and cover-up many other misdeeds - none of us are the wiser.

Cyprus would have also taken this much quieter, sneakier path of stealing savings and wealth confiscation, but they had one problem. They were part of the EU - meaning they could not print their own currency. They were hence forced to directly tax deposits, which is more apparent and above-board. 

International Banks should learn from Canadian banks, who every year invent new programs and fees to tax and confiscate more of their depositors funds. Masters of semantics. linguistics and legalese, they have fooled everyone into believing in these disciplined annual thefts are legitimate. So far!  When the presidents of banks earn 50 times more than the country 's leader - you know where the crooks are working. Now we need police. 

Returning to Cyprus, EU and banks, these events are creating a global loss of confidence and trust in the financial system that is justified - all these poor judgements will ultimately lead to global financial Bubblegeddon and then political upheaval. The Bond Vigilantes are going to get very rich, while the New York Times will be looking for a new OP-ED columnists. Say Jimmy, are you busy? 

April 22, 2013 

HELP WANTED - CENTRAL BANKERS