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International LEADERS Calling Market Crashes Years Ahead
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'Warned 2000 tech slide; predicted 2008 meltdown in 2007. Forecasted 2020 global economic collapse in 2011, AND NOW- BY 2050 - THE MOTHER OF ALL CRASHES"

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Showing posts with label Risks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Risks. Show all posts

Monday, 14 September 2015

Brazil Poster Child For Economic Collapse, & More Insights

BRASÍLIA — The president of Brazil should have been ecstatic. She had just won re-election after an intense campaign in which she fiercely defended her role in making Brazil, for a few fleeting years, a rising star on the global stage.
But in the days after her victory last October, President Dilma Rousseff was worried, confronted in private deliberations with her closest advisers by signs that Brazil’s triumphs were at risk of coming undone.
“We went too far,” Aloízio Mercadante, Ms. Rousseff’s chief of staff, acknowledged publicly this month, describing the sense of alarm as the dust settled after the election and Ms. Rousseff and her aides grappled with the weaknesses in Brazil’s economy.


Jim Simons was a mathematician and cryptographer who realized: the complex math he used to break codes could help explain patterns in the world of finance. Billions later, he’s working to support the next generation of math teachers and scholars. TED’s Chris Anderson sits down with Simons to talk about his extraordinary life in numbers.


The AP reports that some driver advocates like the Center for Auto Safety were concerned that this pledge doesn’t do enough to get automatic breaking systems into cars. Those advocates would rather the government legally require cars to have automatic breaking systems, instead of rely on a voluntary promise to keep drivers safe. Another concern is that automatic braking systems are generally sold as add-ons to luxury vehicles, which would put them out of reach of most consumers


Credit default swaps are contracts that let investors buy protection to hedge against the risk that corporate or sovereign debt issuers will not meet their payment obligations.
The market peaked at $58 trillion in 2007, according to the Bank for International Settlements, but shrank to $16 trillion seven years later as investors better understood its risks


One often wonders why governments indebt themselves for so much more than they can ever hope to pay… Here, Western economists, bankers, traders, Ivy League academics and professors, Nobel laureates and the mainstream media have a quick and monolithic reply: because all nations need “investment and investors” if they wish to build highways, power plants, schools, airports, hospitals, raise armies, service infrastructures and a long list of et ceteras, economic and national activities are all about.



This ranking sorts 61 countries by price, earnings needed to buy a gallon, and annual income spent on fuel.




Why The Fed Would Be Insane T


Raise Rates: The Rising U.S. Dollar


The USD strengthening since last July is the core driver of the global recession.
The parlor game of the moment is laying odds on the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates, leave rates unchanged, or (gasp!) hint at future stimulus. There are certainly a multitude of inputs to the Fed's decision, and a variety of potential consequences, but only one really matters: the effect on foreign exchange/currency markets.

It's not that difficult to understand the one dynamic that matters. If the Fed raise yields/interest rates in the U.S., that makes the U.S. currency, i.e. the U.S. dollar (USD), more attractive.
Higher yield = more attractive, especially when coupled with the liquid market for U.S. Treasuries and the relative safety of the dollar vis a vis other currencies issued by falling-into-recession nations and trading blocs.




A Passing Thought...



Thursday, 30 April 2015

Clever Accounting Tricks (GAAP) Hides BIG Banks' Real Leverage Risks

America’s biggest banks aren't ready for next meltdown


When Audited  Leverage And Risks Are Hidden IN GAAP


WASHINGTON  — The main financial risk facing the United States today looks very similar to what caused so much trouble in 2007-2008: big banks with too much debt and too little equity capital on their balance sheets. Uneven global regulations, not to mention regulators who fall asleep at the wheel, compound this structural vulnerability.

We already saw this movie, and it ended badly. Next time could be an even worse horror show.
All booms are different, but every major financial crisis has at its heart the same issue: major banks get into trouble and teeter on the brink of collapse. Disruption at the core of any banking system leads to tight credit, with major negative effects on the real economy. In our modern world, in which finance is interwoven throughout the economy, the consequences can be particularly severe — as we saw in 2008 and 2009. Read More.

REMEMBER 2005!
Famous Accounting Frauds - Evaporating Wealth In Virtual Moments


INVESTORS' INSIGHTS  - "Today's Edge

Lets face it, since inception the purpose of Banks was to create liquidity in the economy through leverage of its own balance sheet. The premise for this excessive leverage was the collateral they held on the credits provided to others. But the sensibilities of this premise falls apart when credits are unsecured and leverage ratios climb to new heights by paying corrupt audit firms to create costume accounting practises. In the simple  vernacular - lies.  

Today, as a result, the leverage in the system could be as low as 35:1 or beyond 200:1. The point being, nobody truly knows - and consequently, the street's  sense is that the financial  mathematics is now so shaky that even a slight upward rise in rates will wipe out a substantive portion of the Banks' asset and equity values - leading to a complete systemic collapse. Enron's  chart above for instance is a foreshadowing test case for the whole system that we now have in place. Not a pretty picture.

That's  why everyone  is so worried. That's why CPI needs to be manipulated. That's why the US dollar could lose its reserve  currency status. That's why no one dare raise rates by the slightest percentage. 

That's why one day all the corruption, markets and economies are mathematically boxed into an algebra articulating  the certainty of "The Mother Of All Crashes",

" One day!"

International Offices
April 30, 2015



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