The Jim Rogers Blog: Shale Oil not enough to solve Americas Debt Problems

The Jim Rogers Blog: Shale Oil not enough to solve Americas Debt Problems

(more video)

Shale's Big Shoes to Fill

No kidding? In fact, we have done this analysis once before using Bill Gross's (PIMCO) numbers that puts US total debt closer to $100 trillion once all contingencies, guarantees  and other unfunded future liabilities are thrown into the pot. And that's present valuing related assets using today's long-term treasury rates. What happens when they double?

So what would it take to pay off the US debt - you would  think that one trillion barrels in  world -wide oil reserves would do it?  Under strict assumptions it does, but then how do you run the future economy? To be fair, this assumes too, that all US debt is owed to foreigners. It isn't. The vast majority is owed to other citizens that Keynesian economists believe we should  not fret about under the theory  - it is just money you owe  to yourself. That could be a hard one to explain to pensioners if one day that debt is cancelled for whatever reasons.

Still. we are on-side with Mr Rogers, as it is going to take a lot more than shale oil to pay the debt and keep the "physical economy" running for a few more decades. Think about it!

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First Financial Insights 
August 6,2013 

Another set of NUMBERS

The Jim Rogers Blog : I would rather be a Creditor than Debtor

The Jim Rogers Blog : I would rather be a Creditor than Debtor (read more)

Lets see if we can make sense of this. Now let's say China holds 1trillion in 10 year bonds and decides to cash or redeem their whole position. What could possibly happen? The Fed wires a one trillion freshly printed electronic dollars to China and takes back the bonds. So instead of holding an IOU due in ten years it now holds an IUO that is due on demand - albeit it is less less than 10% of  US's GDP or in other words all the goods and services output of the US economy for one month.Not much by some measures.

Anyway, now if China decides to convert these dollars immediately to other currencies it actually shoots itself in the foot because by depressing the US dollar they make their exports substantially more expensive to American consumers. Demand for Chinese goods would collapse in the US, that could shut down China's domestic manufacturing causing massive unemployment, and in turn social unrest followed by political change. Somehow it is hard to find a winner in such drama and both sides are thus inter-dependent - strange bedfellows indeed! .

There is a lesson - the best credit terms maybe negotiated by the creditor's biggest debtor - so borrow a lot! But somehow, Ben Franklin and Shakespeare's  wisdom also seems to ring true: neither a borrower nor lender be...

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First Financial Insights

Or, just tell them to go fly a kite