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Showing posts with label hyper-inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hyper-inflation. Show all posts

Monday, 22 June 2015

Iceland Jailed Their Bankers To Succeed, & More





Instead of imposing devastating austerity measures and bailing out its banks, Iceland let its banks go bust and focused on social welfare policies. It has now repaid 85% of UK claims. When the global economic crisis hit in 2008, Iceland suffered terribly—perhaps more than any other country. The savings of 50,000 people were wiped out, plunging Icelanders into debt and placing 25% of homeowners in mortgage default. Now, less than a decade later, it will become the first European country that faced collapse to beat its pre-crisis peak of economic output. The IMF declared that Iceland had achieved economic recovery 'without compromising its welfare model' of universal healthcare and education.








Probably the first public indication that things were heading downhill for Lehman wasn’t until June 9th, 2008, when Fitch Ratings cut Lehman’s rating to AA-minus, outlook negative.
The “negative outlook” indicates that another further downgrade is likely. In this particular case, it was the understatement of all time.












So we have the people for whom collapse is a means of claiming unearned power, the people for whom it’s a blank screen on which to project an assortment of self-regarding fantasies, and the people for whom it’s an excuse to do nothing in the face of a challenging future. All three of those are popular gimmicks with an extremely long track record, and they’ll doubtless all see plenty of use millennia after industrial civilization has taken its place in the list of failed civilizations. The only problem with them is that they don’t happen to provide any useful guidance for those of us who have noticed that collapse isn’t merely a rhetorical gimmick meant to get emotional reactions—that it’s something that actually happens, to actual civilizations, and that it’s already happening to ours.




A vendor arranges eggs on a new 100 billion Zimbabwean dollar note in Harare

In most corners of the world, deflation is currently a far bigger concern than inflation, let alone hyperinflation. The typical central banker has to worry about having too little power to influence wages and prices, not too much. Governments do have the capacity to create Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation through deficit spending, but that requires far more excess than any halfway decent political system will allow.










split image of beach goers and Greece leaders


Eleventh hour hope for Greek debt talks as Athens submits new proposal ahead of eurozone meeting

European finance ministers will today decide whether to accept Greece’s last ditch offer to prevent the country defaulting on its debts.
An eleventh hour proposal was submitted last night by Athens to its lenders in the hope it could unlock the bailout money it desperately needs to keep paying public wages and pensions.
British banks have raced to pull their money out of Greece as the negotiations, which have lasted for five months, went to the wire. 
















the TPP would steer member states towards pro-business, anti-consumer healthcare policies.It would crush the public health system of  New Zealand and Australia. It would restrain governments' abilities to provide healthcare and medicine to citizens. 





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The Extinction Debate





Tuesday, 27 August 2013

BIG Mac Measures Inflation



Over 350,000 Trillion Served

The BIG point here is that no one in their right minds trusts or believes the CPI numbers anywhere on the planet. It is a number that by its very nature is subject to all forms of manipulation. Yet it is perhaps the most critical economic metric in the field of abstract economics.From this number investors set their expected rates of return inclusive of inflation. There are many pundits, economists and advisers who are saying this number has been pushed deliberately downwards to match the current policies of government.

We believe them because the grocery store bill, gas pumps and McDonald's prices seem to be way ahead of reported national CPI figures. Who do you believe? What is the real CPI?

One approach, as suggested is to look at the hours of work required to buy a staple or basket of staples. But even that is open to transgressions, such as: who is the average worker and what are their wages? Then do you apply local,  regional or national wages? Is there a solution?  Not really, save for doing you own personal calculations, both for personal and investment purposes. That number is probably as good as any, but certainly of more relevance to your circumstances.

Remember that in the end money is a medium - being a communication device intended to transmit a subjective value idea from sender to receiver. The message of value transmitted is an abstract that will never be subject to object scientific measure. It is simply the best social device we have to facilitate human activity.

INVESTORS INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
August 27, 2013 

"Money ain't everything it's true, but what it can't get...?"
Beatles, Circa 1961








Saturday, 24 August 2013

The Jim Rogers Blog - Commodity Prices Going to Moon


Does this mean we should land on the moon again for bargains? Folks could be waiting there right now looking for our business. Who we wonder?

Commodity prices are ready to shoot upwards whether there is a war in Syria or any big event somewhere else on the planet. Syria is somewhat irrelevant in this regard as markets are poised more on fundamentals to lift skyward.

The world is more fragile today than it was twenty years ago for obvious reasons. More people, fewer resources and wider geo-political tensions and instability. For more worries you may add in climate change, wildfires, water supplies and worst - fewer and fewer pollinating bugs. And that's the war we are really losing sleep over.

Bottom Line: Anyday, anything, or anytime - LIFT OFF ALICE!

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
August 24, 2013

To the Moon...






Friday, 9 August 2013

BLOOMBERG - OOPs! - #Japan's Economy Grows Less Than Forecast

(More)


Japan’s Economy Grew Less-Than-Forecast 2.6% Last Quarter

Investment Drops - 
Annualised Growth 2.6% 

Recently folks were applauding the turn around in profits for some of JAPAN INC's biggest exporters, as short-term delusional benefits of its managed currency devaluation jumped earnings in the second quarter, leading some to even proclaim that the two decades of economic decay had finally come to an end. That celebration was short lived, as overall GDP growth for the period, did not meet expectations.

Moreover, business confidence, as measured by capital investment, drifts hesitantly despite improved profits. Consumers can look forward to a possible increase in sales taxes, that certainly cannot add to their feel good levels. Plus, as import costs increase, they can expect their pocket books to be squeezed much more in the months ahead. 

In all, the deflationary overhang is still there as low interest rates cause both consumers and businesses to act cautiously. It is still hard for commercail banks to lend too, because lenders " collateral values" can disappear in an overnight whisper of a rate increase. These internal structural weaknesses play into foreign competitions' hands as they can invest capital more effectively. That's not good for the export business.

At some point, Japan's deflation should disappear with the import of hyper-inflation on materials from other countries, at same time, so should exports. Then what?  Growing global populations and shrinking resources will not work to save this economy from the fix it entered after its financial bubble burst and the finite constraints of a shrinking planet set  in.


INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
August 9, 2013

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