AS #OPEC Production Rapidly Sinks - Limits To #Growth Take Hold

"Hard to say whether Saudi Arabia is following Venezuela's huge production drop as both had notoriously overstated their reserves. The Saudi's conventional fields are very long in the tooth.  Lets not forget MIT's - "Limits to Growth" - research book that predicted a major drop in resources around 2020, and so far their predictions have been fairly accurate, as evidenced by the graph below and the follow-up report 30 years later. It appears we are closing in on a new era - as cheap conventional oil runs dry. What's next is anybody's guess. "

Dr P G Kinesa

October 20, 2019

OPEC September 2019 Oil Production

By Ron Patterson

Data for the OPEC charts below were taken from the October OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

OPEC 14 crude oil production was down1,318,000 barrels per day in September. Most of that decline was due to the Iranian attack on the Saudi oil complex at Abqaiq. ( The question is whether this attack may have been staged to distract attention from the bigger production decline issue and overstated reserves?)

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LIMITS TO GROWTH

KEY CONCLUSIONS

After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team came to the following conclusions:^[1]:23–24

1. Given business as usual, i.e., no changes to historical growth trends, the limits to growth on earth would become evident by 2072, leading to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". This includes the following:
   • Global Industrial output per capita reaches a peak around 2008, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global Food per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global Services per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global population reaches a peak in 2030, followed by a rapid decline
2. Growth trends existing in 1972 could be altered so that sustainable ecological and economic stability could be achieved.
3. The sooner the world's people start striving for the second outcome above, the better the chance of achieving it.

SYNOPSIS 30 YEAR UPDATE

The signs are everywhere around us:

• Sea level has risen 10–20 cm since 1900. Most non-polar glaciers are retreating, and the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing in summer.
• In 1998 more than 45 percent of the globe’s people had to live on incomes averaging $2 a day or less. Meanwhile, the richest one- fifth of the world’s population has 85 percent of the global GNP. And the gap between rich and poor is widening.
• In 2002, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN estimated that 75 percent of the world’s oceanic fisheries were fished at or beyond capacity. The North Atlantic cod fishery, fished sustainably for hundreds of years, has collapsed, and the species may have been pushed to biological extinction.
• The first global assessment of soil loss, based on studies of hundreds of experts, found that 38 percent, or nearly 1.4 billion acres, of currently used agricultural land has been degraded.
• Fifty-four nations experienced declines in per capita GDP for more than a decade during the period 1990–2001.

These are symptoms of a world in overshoot, where we are drawing on the world’s resources faster than they can be restored, and we are releasing wastes and pollutants faster than the Earth can absorb them or render them harmless. They are leading us toward global environmental and economic collapse—but there may still be time to address these problems and soften their impact.

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 FINAL WARNING LIMITS TO GROWTH

#FED Sends Mixed Messages As Future #Outlook Cloudy

Fed in three voices: recession, bubbles, and 'in a good place'

By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir

(Reuters) - After delivering a split-decision rate cut earlier this week, U.S. Federal Reserve officials put their divisions on full display Friday, with warnings of a slowdown on the one hand and financial risks on the other bookending talk of how well things are going.

Central bankers are often called on to speak with one voice, but the Fed now has three - those ready to reduce rates even lower to ward off economic risks, those who prefer to stand pat and watch the data for now, and those warning that the Fed may already be fueling a credit bubble.

"The economy is in a good place," Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in a CNBC interview, noting that while there are risks, there is also a "virtuous circle" under way of job gains, wage gains, and increased spending among households.

Consumption accounts for nearly 70% of the U.S. economy, and "I cannot think of a time in aggregate when the consumer has been in better shape," Clarida said.

Fed policymakers voted 7-3 to reduce their target overnight policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, to a level of between 1.75% and 2.0%. It was the second Fed rate reduction this year.

The move, which Clarida supported, was aimed at offsetting slowing global growth and risks associated with U.S. President Donald Trump's trade battles with China.

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ROUBININ AGAIN WARNS OF GATHERING STORM

#Week4Future: Global #Climate #Strike Week - @postcarbon

At this unprecedented pivital juncture in human history Investors'Insights is pleased to annouce its support and endorsement of the beliefs, policies and actions of:

Post Carbon Institute

Our Strategy

Post Carbon Institute provides individuals and communities with the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated ecological, economic, energy, and equity crises of the 21st century. We help build resilience to withstand these crises, and support social and cultural change to make society more ready to take decisive and appropriate action. Specifically, we:

• Grow collective understanding of our energy reality, and the need for both conservation and appropriate, community-centric renewable energy.
• Promote community resilience as the best way to build thriving, relocalized neighborhoods, towns, and cities capable of withstanding coming disruptions.
• Support a growing movement of innovators and early adopters who can develop best practices and provide leadership both now and during future crises.

"But even if hope has to be held lightly in the steely-eyed recognition of what we face, we still must take action. Much of that action comes back to our own backyards."

A sea change moment?

Asher Miller

September 19, 2019

Tomorrow begins Global Climate Strike Week, led by young people to demand urgent action to address the climate emergency. What many hope will be a sea change moment in the struggle to mobilize a real response to this existential threat had a humble start a year ago when a young Swedish student, Greta Thunberg, began spending her Fridays protesting in front of the Swedish Parliament. Inspired by Greta’s example—and her blunt, uncompromising stance—millions of students have since joined her in the “Fridays for the Future” movement. This week is an opportunity for the rest of us to participate.

I will be out on the streets tomorrow and the following Friday in my hometown, and I’ll be joining a number of other activities planned locally over the coming week. PCI is supporting our staff to actively participate in the various communities where they live. We’d like to encourage you to do the same. Visit the Climate Strike website to find activities near you.

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The Most Important Speech Ever

#CLIMATECRISIS: IMPORTANT #WEBINAR INVITATION FROM THE POST #CARBON INSTITUTE

Hello Everyone I work on issues surrounding the climate crisis nearly every day, but I still struggle to talk about the magnitude of the situation with my family and friends. Finding the right approach to these conversations—so we can keep talking even when we disagree or leave the conversation feeling empowered rather than disheartened—can be truly challenging. Which is why I'm so excited about our live webinar with Karin Kirk and Susanne Moser, We Need to Talk: How to have difficult conversations about the climate crisis. Karin Kirk has taught courses about climate change, overseen energy conservation projects, worked on national-scale climate education efforts, and measured the effectiveness of NOAA's Climate.gov website. While a scientist by training, Karin is particularly intrigued by the intersection of science and the human dimension. Susanne Moser is a geographer who works nationally and internationally as an independent scholar and consultant from a base in western Massachusetts. Her work with government agencies, non-profits, foundations, and other researchers and consultants focuses on adaptation to climate change, resilience, transformation, science-policy interactions, and effective climate change communication. During the webinar we'll talk about: Overcoming personal reluctance to have conversations about the climate crisis Strategies for connecting with people who disagree with us How to approach this difficult topic so that you inspire others to take action I hope you'll join us. Our panelists have a wealth of experience and wisdom to offer so we really think you'll enjoy this great conversation whether you talk to people about the climate crisis for a living or out of personal passion. WHAT: Live Webinar - We Need To Talk DATE: Thursday, October 10, 2019 TIME: 11:00 AM PDT / 2:00 PM EDT / 6:00 PM GMT GET YOUR TICKETS TODAY We are so lucky to have such an engaged and inspiring community. Your participation in these events makes them richer and far more meaningful. If you think your family and friends might also find this webinar interesting, please spread the word and share this post l with them. In gratitude, Amy Buringrud Marketing & Communications Director Copyright © 2019 Post Carbon Institute, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: Post Carbon Institute 800 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 5 Corvallis, Oregon 97333 Add us to your address book

#OPEC #Oil Production Continues Unprecedented Slide

"The OPEC charts below were produced from data published in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report."

OPEC August 2019 Oil Production

by RON PATTERSON 

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"SLIDE? HOW SHOULD I KNOW?"

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AGREEMENT TO CUT PRODUCTION

#INVESTORS ALERT: Massive #Insider Sales Ring The Bell For Market Bottom

Last week alone, top executives from Salesforce (CRM), Slack (WORK), Chipotle (CMG), Visa (V)and Home Depot (HD) all sold shares, according to OpenInsider, a site that tracks insider stock sales.

Insiders are selling stock like it's 2007

By Matt Egan, CNN Business

New York (CNN Business)The leaders of Corporate America are cashing in their chips as doubts grow about the sustainability of the longest bull market in American history.

Corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million of stock per day in August, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks stock market liquidity.

August is on track to be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion. The only other times that has happened was 2006 and 2007, the period before the last bear market in stocks, TrimTabs said.

Investors often view insider buying and selling — transactions performed by top executives, leading shareholders and directors — as a signal of confidence. Even though the stock market is much larger than it was in 2007, so the $10 billion mark may not mean as much now as it did then, the acceleration of insiders heading for the exits could indicate concern about the challenges ahead, especially as the US-China trade war threatens to set off a recession.

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NEAR RECORD PACE

How Long Can #Markets Climb A Wall of #Worries?

"Little wonder investors are so complacent. Wall Street hit a new record on Friday with all eyes on US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, who this week will be — guess what? 

Cutting interest rates."

 

Four flashpoints that may unsettle booming stock markets in the coming year 

In 2008, the financial system teetered on the brink of collapse. It was a crisis triggered by a catastrophic debt build-up in America's housing market that, once it burst, infected the US and the global banking system.

Ultimately, the contagion and fear was contained. But the underlying problems were never really addressed, let alone solved. They were merely papered over with vast amounts of extra debt created out of thin air.

Remarkably, central banks since then have managed to avoid yet another debt-inspired meltdown by sending interest rates to zero and then negative territory. 

What they now most fear is another financial market implosion that could spill over and cripple the real economy. But as they've demonstrated time and again, they will stop at nothing to avoid one.

How long can this state of suspended animation continue, where supposedly free markets are so easily manipulated? Investors appear to have become lulled into believing it will continue indefinitely.

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BUFFET IS UNSETTLED

#Tesla's HUGE Losses Continue - Shares Crash As #Solvency Concerns Rise

Company also announces departure of chief technology officer

 

Tesla has reported a bigger-than-expected loss of $408m (£327m) in the second quarter and said its chief technology officer JB Straubel will step down.

Despite a record delivery of 95,356 cars in the quarter, Tesla’s revenue also disappointed forecasts. The shares of the Palo Alto, California-based company fell more than 11 per cent in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

Chief executive Elon Musk said Tesla expects to break even this quarter and turn a profit in the last three months of 2019, after successive losses in the first half of the year.

Mr Straubel, a Tesla veteran who pioneered its electric batteries, will become a senior adviser. His departure completes the replacement of long-standing senior executives at the top of the company.

Mr Straubel will be replaced by one of his subordinates, Drew Baglino.

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THEY SAW IT COMING...

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#Abstractions Can No Longer #Stimulate Physical #Economy

"History shows that the collapse of economies is very common. Collectively, we have closed our eyes to this possibility ever happening to the world economy in the modern era. If the issue with collapsing demand causing ever-lower energy prices is as severe as my analysis indicates, perhaps we should be examining this scenario more closely."

Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems

By Gail Tverberg

Economists tell us that within the economy there is a lot of substitutability, and they are correct. However, there are a couple of not-so-minor details that they overlook:

• There is no substitute for energy. It is possible to harness energy from another source, or to make a particular object run more efficiently, but the laws of physics prevent us from substituting something else for energy. Energy is required whenever physical changes are made, such as when an object is moved, or a material is heated, or electricity is produced.
• Supplemental energy leverages human energy. The reason why the human population is as high as it is today is because pre-humans long ago started learning how to leverage their human energy (available from digesting food) with energy from other sources. Energy from burning biomass was first used over one million years ago. Other types of energy, such as harnessing the energy of animals and capturing wind energy with sails of boats, began to be used later. If we cut back on our total energy consumption in any material way, humans will lose their advantage over other species. Population will likely plummet because of epidemics and fighting over scarce resources.

Many people appear to believe that stimulus programs by governments and central banks can substitute for growth in energy consumption. Others are convinced that efficiency gains can substitute for growing energy consumption. My analysis indicates that workarounds, in the aggregate, don’t keep energy prices high enough for energy producers. Oil prices are at risk, but so are coal and natural gas prices. We end up with a different energy problem than most have expected: energy prices that remain too low for producers. Such a problem can have severe consequences.

Let’s look at a few of the issues involved:

[1] Despite all of the progress being made in reducing birth rates around the globe, the world’s population continues to grow, year after year.

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EXPONENTIALS TELL THE FUTURE