Nouriel Roubini Blog: Gold: Keynes’s ‘Barbarous Relic’

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Gold: Keynes’s ‘Barbarous Relic’: “Gold remains John Maynard Keynes’s ‘barbarous relic,’ with no intrinsic value and used mainly as a hedge against mostly irrational fear and...

Rarely, do we ever agree whole-heartily with leading economists, except when it comes to Gold! There is a common ground existing amoung them, including Keynes, Roubini, Kinesa, Krugman and others, who ALL see no sense in its perceived value nor in its ongoing extraction from the ground - just to store most of it underground again. Does this sound insane? It certainly is.

Some would argue that gold has commercial value that partly legitimizes its mining. Well, our analysis indicates that enough gold is already mined and stored to satisfy commercial needs for the next 400 years. Considering that oil reserves will most likely be depleted within 50 years, thereby changing forever our way of life - this argument mathematically and clearly backfires on its supporters. For is it not utterly foolish to continue mining a mineral and wasting valuable non-renewables for a element with little practical value? Can we not see how analogous this is to cutting down the last tree on Easter Island only to erect one final statue? While answers to these questions are obvious - not much has changed nor been learnt since that famous last tree was cut so many years ago.

It is also said that an ancient Apache warrior once warned that the white eye would waste all the land and water. How right he may be!

Gold Bugs, however positively assert - this is an element with "intrinsic value". This phrase is a clever and ambiguous linguistic device, but what creates this abstract intrinsic and invisible value? A simple neurological answer is our imagination. Cognition's formed by the mass and energy particles of the mind that further triggers an arbitrary feel of a good sensation somewhere in the primal inner cortex. Without this electro-chemical reaction and resultant sensations, this element thus has virtually no value or benefits related to the short, near or long-term survival needs of our species. For some reason that old saying comparing Gold's utility to the anatomical parts on a Bull is meaningful here.

So in the end we hypothesize that as scarce non-resources move towards their inevitable exhaustion, Gold will lose its comparative purchasing power. And, moreover, there is ample evidence to verify this assertion. For instance, in 1979, when Gold peaked at around $1000 ounce it would acquire over 50 barrels of oil. Today, with oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel, an ounce of gold barely acquires 14 barrels. If that surprises you, try this calculation with cost of a hamburger or cup of coffee.

So down the road as arable land, water and other non-renewables are exhausted, gold's value should gravitate to zero. Assuming, of course; that we return to sanity and realize that cutting down the last tree goes beyond absurd. If not, the Apache warrior's prediction is not just going to be right - he will be right!

First Financial Insights

June 26, 2013

Golden whispers sing, touching the land and wind...

Jim Rogers : I am making sure I don’t have too much money in any one specific bank account anywhere in the world

Jim Rogers : I am making sure I don’t have too much money in any one specific bank account anywhere in the world

Jim it is not about the bank accounts, that's the easy one to figure out. You cannot short bank accounts. But, you can short currencies, bonds and a variety of financial intermediaries and their related securities. You got to have a sneaking suspicion that is where the bucks can be made. Maybe Jim will say something once he has his positions in place?

Where should we do our homework, anyways? Let me see there's the EU, Banks, Insurers, Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc, etc,


May 15, 2013

"and that's the long and short of it"

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Video: Market Outlook: THU

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Video: Market Outlook: THU 04 APR 13 | 03:45 PM ET: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics, discusses China and Japan, and explains whether he sti...

After a while these television economists start to sound so programmed with their rhetoric the words start to blend together and sound phonetically like blah, blah, blah. The accent does spice it a bit though. And most of what is being said is trade oriented and short-term focused - less than two years. Not surprisingly, there is little reference to Cyprus and the complete boon-dongle this was for the EU. No mention made of what could happen to EU bond markets and how that could spread to equities and bond markets around the world.That's shocking, as there is still global contageon potential here.

To be short, Nouriel's TV shows has entertainment value but offers very little to the serious long-term investor. If he could, or did offer such value; then he would not an economist. That's our read on it.

May 21, 2013

"TA-DA"

 

Thanks Folks...

Niall Ferguson (Video) : Post-American World a New Dark Age ?

Niall Ferguson (Video)  : Post-American World a New Dark Age ?

Who knows? First, it is difficult to make any sort of comparison to the Roman Empire for a thousand reasons. Niall is right in stating, that it basically launched Europe into the Dark Ages with little impact on the rest of the planet. The British Empire has fallen with little impact on the state of global society, as there were others there to pick up the ball. So even, a substantive decline or fall of the American Empire is not of great concern to global society, as there are many in the wings ready to step in and provide a leading role on a combined or singular basis. The world will go on.

The bigger concern is the fall of the "global industrial-financial complex" that is not run by geographic political states, but a collection of multi-national entities operating without borders. It is an invisible political state that operates organically without the protocols that have defined geographic political states. It is the collective inertia, infrastructures and outputs of the business and economic community for our global village. It is a ghostly enigma, but nonetheless exists by virtue of long-standing practises and inter-connections that are entrenched among nations around the planet.

It has no flag, no symbols, no constitution, no formal codes and no figurehead as leader. It cannot  be attacked geographically or otherwise.Yet, as world leaders certainly come to understand, it is an entity that must be recognized and dealt with using practical diplomacy. It is topic reaching far beyond these comments.

The point being, it is when this "Invisible Empire" falls, then humanity as a whole would enters a Dark Age similar to regional historic periods. Triggers for this collapse, could come from breakdowns in global finance, international trade, bio-sphere devastation or the shortages of the physical ingredients required to keep a "global industrial-financial complex" running. Most likely, any of these cases or combinations, would lead to horrific global hostilities.

The next dark age may occur sooner than any of us expect, lasting longer than can be imagined. This planet is a small island in the universe, isolated from neighboring entities offering alternative possibilities for existence. And we have seen what happens to small isolated islands. 

Through-out  history empires rise and fall, there is little to believe that this one is any different - a sobering thought.

May  9, 2013

The  Invisible Empire?

Jim Rogers Blog - Cyprus Sets The Standard For Other Countries To Seize Bank Deposits In Future

Jim Rogers Blog - Cyprus Sets The Standard For Other Countries To Seize Bank Deposits In Future

Monarchs did this many times through-out history - not a new story really. What Jim did not emphasise is that Central Banks who can print their own fiat currencies are taxing away our savings, investments and wealth through this method of debasing indirect taxation. There are quietly confiscating your assets to bailout banks, pay excessive bonuses and cover-up many other misdeeds - none of us are the wiser.

Cyprus would have also taken this much quieter, sneakier path of stealing savings and wealth confiscation, but they had one problem. They were part of the EU - meaning they could not print their own currency. They were hence forced to directly tax deposits, which is more apparent and above-board. 

International Banks should learn from Canadian banks, who every year invent new programs and fees to tax and confiscate more of their depositors funds. Masters of semantics. linguistics and legalese, they have fooled everyone into believing in these disciplined annual thefts are legitimate. So far!  When the presidents of banks earn 50 times more than the country 's leader - you know where the crooks are working. Now we need police. 

Returning to Cyprus, EU and banks, these events are creating a global loss of confidence and trust in the financial system that is justified - all these poor judgements will ultimately lead to global financial Bubblegeddon and then political upheaval. The Bond Vigilantes are going to get very rich, while the New York Times will be looking for a new OP-ED columnists. Say Jimmy, are you busy? 

April 22, 2013 

HELP WANTED - CENTRAL BANKERS