The Fed Setting Up For A U.S. Dollar Collapse If No June Rate Hike
Summary
The U.S. dollar index has been on the rise thanks to Fed officials talking up rate hikes.
Propping up the U.S. dollar by the Fed is referred to as a “Fed Dollar Put”.
The Fed may have already painted themselves into a corner about rate hikes.
A no June rate hike decision may cause a dollar collapse as speculators pile onto short positions.
The U.S. dollar index, or DXY, a weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, has bounced 3.72% since its 15-month low on May 3, when Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and his San Francisco Fed colleague John Williams told reporters that U.S. financial markets may be underestimating the odds of a central bank rate increase at the June 14-15 Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meeting.Oil’s Recovery Under Threat as Tankers Run in Circles Off China
In late February, the tanker Jag Lok loaded oil from Equatorial Guinea in western Africa and set sail for the Chinese port of Qingdao, the gateway to the world’s newest buyers of crude, a journey of more than 12,000 nautical miles. After reaching its destination in early April, the ship churned in circles for 20 days before it got a chance to deliver its cargo. That’s because the port in Shandong province was struggling to handle a record number of vessels arriving to supply the privately held refineries called “teapots” that dot the region, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. The backup illustrates the challenges facing the independent refiners, which have emerged as a bright spot of rising demand amid a global glut. The processors are forecast by ICIS-China to purchase a combined 1 million barrels a day of crude from overseas this year, up from 620,000 barrels in […]
United States remains largest producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration The United States remained the world’s top producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons in 2015, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates. U.S. petroleum and natural gas production first surpassed Russia in 2012, and the United States has been the world’s top producer of natural gas since 2011 and the world’s top producer of petroleum hydrocarbons since 2013. For the United States and Russia, total petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbon production, in energy content terms, is almost evenly split between petroleum and natural gas. Saudi Arabia’s production, on the other hand, heavily favors petroleum. Total petroleum production is made up of several different types of liquid fuels, including crude oil and lease condensate, tight oil, extra-heavy oil, and bitumen. In addition, various processes produce natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels, and refinery processing gain, among other possible liquid fuels. In the United States, […]
Key Pipeline Could Unleash Alberta’s Oil Sands
Alberta Pipeline Canadian energy regulators handed a win to Alberta’s oil sands producers last week, recommending approval for a major oil pipeline expansion to the Pacific Coast. Canada’s National Energy Board determined that the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline is in the public interest, handing the project’s developer, Kinder Morgan, a key victory. Kinder Morgan already operates an existing pipeline that runs from Alberta to British Columbia, moving 300,000 barrels of oil per day to the coast. But the company is trying to expand the pipeline by running a twin line that would nearly triple capacity to 890,000 barrels per day. Kinder Morgan’s share price jumped by more than 3 percent on news of the NEB decision. The pipeline is one of a handful of major projects that Alberta’s oil industry is desperate to push forward. The lack of pipeline capacity is holding back Canadian oil exports, and […]
How The U.S. Dollar Influences Oil Prices
Fed Building Crude oil has reached a critical technical level, which is likely to test the resolve of the bulls to push prices higher. The bulls have a favorable tailwind with production outages reducing the supply glut. Till about two weeks ago, the drop in the U.S. dollar was also supportive of the crude oil prices, but since then, the dollar has recovered, putting pressure on the crude oil prices. The U.S. dollar and the various commodities have an inverse correlation. The chart below shows the correlation between crude and the U.S. dollar index for the past 12 years. (Click to enlarge) The chart shows a clear inverse correlation between the two, especially when there is a sustained trend. From 2003 to 2008, the dollar was in a sustained bear trend, during which, crude oil witnessed one of its strongest bull runs. When the dollar formed a bottom, crude […]
