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Tuesday, 24 May 2016
Is US Dollar Crash Possible?
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration The United States remained the world’s top producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons in 2015, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates. U.S. petroleum and natural gas production first surpassed Russia in 2012, and the United States has been the world’s top producer of natural gas since 2011 and the world’s top producer of petroleum hydrocarbons since 2013. For the United States and Russia, total petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbon production, in energy content terms, is almost evenly split between petroleum and natural gas. Saudi Arabia’s production, on the other hand, heavily favors petroleum. Total petroleum production is made up of several different types of liquid fuels, including crude oil and lease condensate, tight oil, extra-heavy oil, and bitumen. In addition, various processes produce natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels, and refinery processing gain, among other possible liquid fuels. In the United States, […]
Alberta Pipeline Canadian energy regulators handed a win to Alberta’s oil sands producers last week, recommending approval for a major oil pipeline expansion to the Pacific Coast. Canada’s National Energy Board determined that the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline is in the public interest, handing the project’s developer, Kinder Morgan, a key victory. Kinder Morgan already operates an existing pipeline that runs from Alberta to British Columbia, moving 300,000 barrels of oil per day to the coast. But the company is trying to expand the pipeline by running a twin line that would nearly triple capacity to 890,000 barrels per day. Kinder Morgan’s share price jumped by more than 3 percent on news of the NEB decision. The pipeline is one of a handful of major projects that Alberta’s oil industry is desperate to push forward. The lack of pipeline capacity is holding back Canadian oil exports, and […]
Fed Building Crude oil has reached a critical technical level, which is likely to test the resolve of the bulls to push prices higher. The bulls have a favorable tailwind with production outages reducing the supply glut. Till about two weeks ago, the drop in the U.S. dollar was also supportive of the crude oil prices, but since then, the dollar has recovered, putting pressure on the crude oil prices. The U.S. dollar and the various commodities have an inverse correlation. The chart below shows the correlation between crude and the U.S. dollar index for the past 12 years. (Click to enlarge) The chart shows a clear inverse correlation between the two, especially when there is a sustained trend. From 2003 to 2008, the dollar was in a sustained bear trend, during which, crude oil witnessed one of its strongest bull runs. When the dollar formed a bottom, crude […]
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