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Monday 17 June 2019

#IAE Non-OPEC Supply Could ResolveTight #OIL In 2020


"On the one hand oil demand growth for 2019 has been downgraded for the second month in a row and the IEA notes that "world trade growth has fallen back to its slowest pace since the financial crisis ten years ago"

 Image result for Iea headquarters

Tighter oil market could be 'short-lived' on 2020 non-OPEC supply: IEA



IEA cuts 2019 oil demand growth again to 1.2 mil b/d but remains upbeat
 
IEA sees stronger 2020 oil demand growth of 1.4 mil b/d on petrochemicals

IEA calls on OPEC crude to fall 650,000 b/d in 2020 from May levels

 BUT TENSIONS ARE MOUNTING

 Image result for oil tankers attacked

Singapore — OPEC will have an uphill battle if it wants to keep oil markets balanced next year as a potentially tighter oil market in the second half of 2019 starts to wash away on a wave of non-OPEC supply.

The International Energy Agency's June Oil Market Report predicts a surge in US shale next year along with strong crude oil contributions from Canada, Brazil and Norway. This translates to non-OPEC supply growth accelerating from 1.9 million b/d this year to 2.3 million b/d in 2020.

"A clear message from our first look at 2020 is that there is plenty of non-OPEC supply growth available to meet any likely level of demand, assuming no major geopolitical shock, and the OPEC countries are sitting on 3.2 million b/d of spare capacity," the IEA said.

Indeed, the IEA has called on OPEC crude to drop to 29.3 million b/d in 2020, 650,000 b/d below the May output level. OPEC's May supply fell to its lowest since 2014 as Iranian supply plunged to 2.4 million b/d due to sanctions -- a number not seen since the late-1980s and on lower Saudi Arabian as well as Nigerian output.



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