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Showing posts with label Moody's. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moody's. Show all posts

Friday, 17 July 2015

Opportunity: Closed -End Bond Funds Deep Discount? & Top Insights









While most of the world’s attention has been on the China market meltdown and the Greek debt showdown, closed-end bond funds have quietly been priced to deliver solid total returns over the next 12-18 months. To take advantage of this pricing, I have carved out an 8%-10% allocation to closed-end bond funds in my Dividend Growth Portfolio .
With the Fed’s looming rate hike casting a shadow over the bond market, many high-quality closed-end bond funds are trading at their deepest discounts to NAV since the 2013 “taper tantrum,” and some are approaching levels last seen during the 2008 meltdown. Starting at these levels, I expect a portfolio of closed-end bond funds to deliver total returns (income + capital gains) of 15%-20% over the next 12-18 months.
With any closed-end mutual fund, you have only three potential drivers of returns:
EVV Premium/Discount to NAV  2010-2015





UK interest rate rise billed for new year, warns Bank of England

Mark Carney says first increase since height of financial crisis is becoming increasingly necessary as economic growth strengthens

The Bank of England building

Britain has been put on alert to expect its first interest rate rise since the global financial crash at around the turn of the year as the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, warned that the long period of 0.5% borrowing costs was coming to an end.
Carney told businesses and consumers that Threadneedle Street would have to respond to the economy’s stronger growth by announcing the first tightening of policy since rates were increased to 5.75% in July 2007 – the month before the US subprime mortgage crisis erupted.



new york wheel 2

New York is building one of the biggest Ferris wheels in the world, and it's partly funded by Chinese investors hoping for U.S. green cards.

Image result for immigration fraud
The wheel, under construction on Staten Island, will stand 630 feet high when it's completed in two years, according to Travis Noyes, chief marketing officer at New York Wheel, the firm developing it. Its 36 pods will hold about 40 people each, offering panoramic views of the New York skyline during a slow rotation.


elizabeth holmes theranos




Theranos founder and CEO Elizabeth Holmes is the world's youngest self-made female billionaire.
When she was a sophomore at Stanford in 2003, Holmes founded healthcare-technology company Theranos (a few months later, she dropped out to focus on the company). Today, she has a net worth of $4.6 billion.
Theranos is a $9 billion biotech company that has a new approach to blood testing. Its goal is to make clinical testing cheaper and faster.
Theranos wants to conduct blood tests for health issues through a single finger stick rather than by having to draw vials of blood in a doctor's office. Theranos has drawn skepticism from the scientific community in part because Theranos is cagey about how its tests actually work.
But for now, Holmes is on top of the world. Already, her blood tests are being offered in some drugstores like Walgreens.


“We will go door to door in Perama, saying to people that we’re fighting,” said Babis, an Open Assembly founder who declined to give his last name. “Then we will reach other communities all over Greece. We will protest by the mayor’s office. We will go to Athens.”






The paradox is that people are as desperate as ever for affordable rental housing. But every child learns early in life that there’s a difference between wanting something and having the means to obtain it. It’s a tough lesson, but fundamental to economic life. Without money, your demand for something is “ineffective,” to use the economic term.

One of the major destabilizing forces in the Chinese stock market is the lack of institutional investors.
Image result for scroogeIn an effort to encourage more institutions to invest, the Chinese Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security last month said pensions plans could invest up to 30% of their assets in the stock market. This would allow as much as 2 trillion yuan of the 3.59 trillion yuan parked in pension funds to trade on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

In the common imagination, at least on the Continent, if not in the UK, the European project is about "peace".
In the aftermath of the World War Two, the driving impetus was how to avoid Europe ever going to war again.



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Thursday, 16 July 2015

US Investors Ignore Global Nosedive So Far??? A Tale of Two Deals, & Top Insights







US stock prices steady as Fed suggests likely rate increase by end of year

US stock prices held steady on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, again suggested there would be an interest rate increase by the end of the year, while the euro fell ahead of a Greek government vote on whether to accept tough terms for a vital third bailout.
Janet YellenOil prices fell on worries of growing supply from Iran following a landmark deal that would lift sanctions that have curbed its oil sales for several years. 
“If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate,” Yellen said in a testimony prepared for a US House panel.
According to Yellen, the Federal Reserve is keeping an eye on the situation in Greece as well as the stock market turmoil in China. On Tuesday, China surpassed expectations when its gross domestic product rose by 7%.








China growth beats 


forecasts but stocks

 

dive again



China's economy grew an annual 7 percent in the second quarter, beating analys' forecasts, though its volatile stock markets took a sharp dive in a reminder of the threats to Beijing's efforts to direct the economy out of a slowdown.

Policymakers had already unleashed a series of measures to pull stocks out of a 30 percent nosedive and appeared to have succeeded last week, but Wednesday's tumble could reawaken concerns over the government's ability to manage the economy.

The day began on a positive note with the growth figures and monthly activity data that also beat expectations across the board, with factory output hitting a five-month high, following reports of increased bank lending on Tuesday.

As the National Bureau of Statistics released the upbeat figures, it described the stock markets as key to economic stability. As if on cue, the key indexes, already down in morning trade, fell more than 4 percent in the afternoon.

The CSI300 index eventually ended down 3.5 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 3 percent.

"Investors liquidated their positions as the GDP data failed to impress," said Steven Leung, a director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.




Greek MPs pass austerity bill as Athens police clash with protesters

Riot police use teargas outside the Greek parliament

Alexis Tsipras drives through tax increases and pensions shakeup amid angry splits in his Syriza party

Five years into the worst crisis to hit their country in decades, Greek MPs voted by a large majority in the early hours of Thursday morning to accept draconian austerity as the price of further bailout funds but at great personal cost to prime minister Alexis Tsipras
In a vote that saw tensions soar in and outside parliament, the embattled leader’s radical leftist Syriza party suffered huge losses as 40 MPs revolted against the measures. A total of 229 lawmakers voted in favour of the internationally mandated measures, 64 against and six abstained.


Iranians take to Tehran streets to hail nuclear deal


Iranians poured onto the streets of capital Tehran after the Ramadan fast ended at sundown on Tuesday.


Iranians poured onto the streets of the capital Tehran, after the Ramadan fast ended at sundown on Tuesday to celebrate the historic nuclear deal agreed with world powers in Vienna.
Supporters of President Hassan Rouhani and his top negotiator, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, waved Iranian flags from their cars, while drivers honked their car horns.
At least three thousand people also gathered along Valiasr Street near the Tajrish district of northern Tehran, singing celebratory songs while dancing and flashing victory signs.  
With the signing of the agreement, people who attended the celebration said they are hopeful that the country's economy and the lives of ordinary citizens would improve. 
Once sanctions are lifted in the coming months, Tehran will gain access to $100-bn in frozen assets, while opening the country for trade.
On Wednesday, Rouhani hailed the agreement as a political victory for his country, saying the agreement meant that Iran would no longer be regarded as an international threat.



The pool of distressed U.S. corporate bonds, typically those yielding more than 10 percentage points above benchmarks, has swelled to $127 billion, from the low last year of $43.7 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. This month alone, Peabody Energy’s $4.8 billion of bonds have fallen 14.9 percent, while Cliffs Natural Resources’s $2.5 billion of notes have declined 14.6 percent.





Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, left, speaks with Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan during a meeting of EU finance ministers at the EU Council building in Brussels on Tuesday, July 14, 2015. British Treasury chief George Osborne arrived to a EU meeting of finance minister with a clear message, don't expect Britain, which is not part of the euro, to pay for any of Greece's rescue money.Italy's public debt has risen to a new record of 2.2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion), up by 23.4 billion euros in May. The figure published by the central bank on Tuesday brought recriminations by opposition politicians against Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan for not bringing down the debt load, which had even at lower levels threatened a sovereign debt crisis.


That is the prediction from Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, who says a continuation of China’s slowdown in the next years may drag global economic growth below 2 percent, a threshold he views as equivalent to a world recession.










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