LEADERS

International LEADERS Calling Market Crashes Years Ahead
Second to None, Anywhere...

'Warned 2000 tech slide; predicted 2008 meltdown in 2007. Forecasted 2020 global economic collapse in 2011, AND NOW- BY 2050 - THE MOTHER OF ALL CRASHES"

THE #FUTURE #OUTLOOKS - KEY AREAS OF #CONCERN AND #RISK

  Economic and Markets 2023 Outlook WARNING  What Worked for the Past Decades Will Not For The Next WHAT'S COMING - GLOBAL RECESSION? DE...

GLOBAL MARKETS


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Champion, Lead, Inspire

Search This Blog

GREAT BARGAINS; FUN IDEAS

Showing posts with label imf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label imf. Show all posts

Monday, 3 August 2015

Global Market Slump Spreads - Greece Markets Hammered "Down 23%", More Top Insights


Greece debt crisis: Athens stock market falls 23% as manufacturing plunges 


The Athens stock exchange.



Heavy losses in Athens as trading resumes


The market has opened and it’s not pretty. The Athex Composite has plunged more than 20%, to 615.12. The falls are even deeper in financials, with banking shares down by as much as 30% – the maximum allowed. Market observers caution, however, that we will not know the true picture until things settle down a bit in a few hours’ time.

Athens market





The Economic And Financial Problems In Europe Are Only Just Beginning…







Euro Gears - Public DomainRight now, the financial world is focused on the breathtaking stock market crash in China, but don’t forget to keep an eye on what is happening in Europe.  Collectively, the European Union has a larger population 
than the United States, a larger economy than either the U.S. or China, and the banking system in Europe is the biggest on the planet by far.  So what happens in Europe really matters, and at this point the European economy is absolutely primed for a meltdown.  European debt levels have never been higher, European banks are absolutely loaded with non-performing loans and high-risk derivatives, and the unemployment rate in the eurozone is currently more than double the unemployment rate in the United States.  In all the euphoria surrounding the “deal” that temporarily kept Greece in the eurozone, I think that people have forgotten that the economic and financial fundamentals in Europe have continued to deteriorate.  Whether Greece ultimately leaves the eurozone or not, a great financial crisis is inevitably coming to Europe.  It is just a matter of time.
In many ways, the economy of Europe is in significantly worse shape than the U.S. economy.  Just recently, the IMF issued a report which warned that the eurozone is “susceptible to negative shocks” and could be facing very tough economic times in the near future. 





The bear market in bullion is an artificial creation.





Varanasi, the ancient Hindu holy city suffers from poor sanitation and chronic traffic congestion.

Populations in many regions are still young. In Africa, children under 15 account for two fifths of the population.





Debt Slave Debt Slavery Debt Bondage Debt Chains - Public Domain

debt is considered to be just part of normal life.  We go into debt to go to college, we go into debt to buy a vehicle, we go into debt to buy a home, and we are constantly using our credit cards to buy the things that we think we need. 




Moments ago energy titan Exxon Mobile, which not too long ago was bigger than AAPL by market cap, and is now roughly half the size of the phone maker, reported earnings which were, in a word, carnage. Starting at the bottom, EPS of $1.00 was not only a big miss to already reduced expectations of $1.11, but also the worst quarter since 2009.






Aerial view of housing in Calgary where double-digit increases in property prices have changed to declines as the oil industry shrinks. Canadian real estate markets may go off the boil even further as interest rates start to rise, says Don Pittis. If so, expect to see more irregularities in the industry.
On a conference call yesterday Home Capital CEO Gerald Soloway insisted that the problem with its brokers was not an indication of a mortgage fraud crisis across Canada. Home Capital's delinquencies remain low, and the company says it has stopped doing business with the brokers that investigators had shown to be pretending customers' income qualified them for mortgages.




Image result for orwell 1984“It’s the first step in the government being able to just turn you off if they don’t like you for some reason.”
“If we go 100% electronic, the banks can decide to charge you whatever you want in each transaction, the government gets to tax every transaction immediately.”









Image result for bernie madoff

Seth Klarman used to manage the fourth largest hedge fund in the US. A legendary value investor (copies of his book Margin of Safety sells for over $1,500 on Amazon), Klarman returned billions in assets under management to outside investors citing “too few” opportunities in the market (again, a legend stating that the market was overvalued).
Warren Buffett, perhaps the single biggest cheerleader for stocks in the last 100 years, is sitting on a record amount of cash. The reason is obvious: the market is dangerously overpriced.





Learning Success: 

APPLY Tips From The Best





Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway – He is a deeply conservative trader during the times that everyone around him is moving from one extreme to the other to the tune of huge losses and gains. Warren Buffett is a perfect example of patience, proving that slow and steady generally wins the business race. (Although I continue to press my own desire to spur Fishbowl’s inventory software business to race!)


Top Weekly Ideas and Insights


An Inconvenient Truth:


What Happens When Top Economists Realize Physical Growth Constraints?








 EXISTENTIAL REALITY 



"Humanity's Coming of Age"

 - The Last Days of Economic Growth -






Tuesday, 28 July 2015

No End In Sight As China's Stocks Plunge Even Deeper, & More Top Insights








After Quick 8.5% Crash, Confusion Reigns in Chinese Stocks



It’s days like Monday that reassure Tony Hann he was right to avoid stocks in mainland China.
The severity of an 8.5 percent drop in the Shanghai Composite Index is bad enough, but what irks him the most is not knowing why it tumbled so much. In a market where unprecedented intervention has made government money one of the biggest drivers of share prices, authorities aren’t transparent enough for investors to make informed decisions, said Hann, the head of emerging markets at Blackfriars Asset Management Ltd.
Foreign investors have unloaded about $7.6 billion of Shanghai shares through the city’s Hong Kong exchange link since July 6


Despite the unprecedented government intervention in the past month, China’s stock market plunged 8.5 percent on Monday – the country’s second worst one-day crash in over eight years. I’m not at all surprised by this turn of events, as I wrote last weekend:
bubblestages
With all of the measures taken to shore up the market, last week’s bounce has been underwhelming, but unsurprising considering the sheer amount of selling pressure that has been created by speculators who are eager to protect themselves as the bubble collapses under its own weight.
Is China’s market out of the woods? I’m not so convinced just yet. It is important to realize that bubbles deflate in waves, with many sharp “dead cat bounces” that give way to even further bearish action.



Worried about the fallout, the government moved aggressively to prop up stocks with a spate of measures. Authorities suspended initial public offerings, introduced a $120 billion market stabilization fund backed by the central bank, and encouraged executives to buy company shares.



Figure 12. World GDP in 2010$ compared (from USDA) compared to World Consumption of Energy (from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014).

Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May “Morph” Into Something Much Worse



9. It is doubtful that the prices of energy products and metals can be raised again without causing recession.
We are not talking about simply raising oil prices. If the economy is to grow again, demand for all commodities needs to rise to the point where it makes sense to extract more of them. We use both energy products and metals in making all kinds of goods and services. If the price of these products rises, the cost of making virtually any kind of goods or services rises.
Figure 1. Chart prepared by St. Louis Fed using data through July 20, 2015.Raising the cost of energy products and metals leads to the problem represented by Growing Inefficiency (Figure 4). As we saw in Point 5, wages tend to go down, rather than up, when other costs of production rise because manufacturers try to find ways to hold total costs down.
Lower wages and higher prices are a huge problem. This is why we are headed back into recession if prices rise enough to enable rising long-term production of commodities, including oil.

IMF warns of gloomy eurozone outlook

Reforms and action needed urgently as fears over Greece, high unemployment, structural flaws and a still-shaken bank sector slow growth

The euro logo in front of the former HQ of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.
The International Monetary Fund has warned the eurozone faces a gloomy economic outlook thanks to lingering worries over Greece, high unemployment and a banking sector still battling to shake off the financial crisis.
The IMF’s latest healthcheck on the eurozone found it was “susceptible to negative shocks” as growth continues to falter and monetary policymakers run out of ways to help. It called for an urgent “collective push” from the currency union to speed up reforms or else risk years of lost growth.
“A moderate shock to confidence – whether from lower expected future growth or heightened geopolitical tensions – could tip the bloc into prolonged stagnation,” said Mahmood Pradhan, the IMF’s mission chief for the eurozone.

Greece rocked by reports of secret plan to raid banks for drachma return

Opposition demands answers after covert proposals attributed to Yanis Varoufakis and fellow ex-minister highlight deep split in Syriza party

Yanis Varoufakis (left) has opposed the bailout deal struck by Alexis Tsipras.

Some members of Greece’s leftist-led government wanted to raid central bank reserves and hack taxpayer accounts to prepare a return to the drachma, according to reports that highlighted the chaos in the ruling Syriza party.
It is not clear how seriously the government considered the plans, attributed to former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and ex-finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. Lafazanis was sacked from his post and Varoufakis resigned earlier this month. However, the revelations have been seized on by opposition parties who are demanding an explanation.

Image result for paul krugman


But the Republican base isn’t eager to hear from SHCs; it has never put McCain on a pedestal; and people who like Donald Trump are not exactly likely to be scared off by his lack of decorum.
For what it’s worth, I still don’t expect The Donald to win the nomination; the big money will presumably coalesce around someone — though given Jeb’s foot-in-mouth performance it’s hard to see who — and will probably squeeze him out in the end. But the story so far has been a remarkable illustration of how little many professional political pundits seem to understand.



BRIEF-Philips CEO says China is really slowing down, as is Brazil


Image result for ceo phillips



My overarching belief is that this is the most “pure macro” environment we have been in for over a decade, probably since the Asian Crisis in the late 1990s, and I just don’t think people understand what is going on.
My entire thesis rests neatly on the US Dollar. Nothing else matters and if my view is wrong on that, then it is likely wrong on many things. What is really weird to me is that most people agree with my views on the dollar but don’t have the trade on, and were less versed on the macro knock-on effects of a strong dollar. Groupthink has tended to isolate particular parts of the US or global economy and ignore the bigger picture.



Importantly, actual breakdowns in market internals have been followed by market losses, on average, even since 2009 (as we saw in the near-20% plunge of 2011). In mid-2014, we imposed the requirement that market internals or credit spreads must actually deteriorate as a precondition to establishing a hard-defensive market outlook. That adaptation brings our present methods back in line with the central considerations that were responsible for our success prior to 2009.

Learn Success: APPLY Tips From The Best


 Jeff Bezos, Amazon– Jeff Bezos is a pioneer in world of internet commerce, and was instrumental in defining this space that is now defining many aspects of the internet world. It is Jeff Bezos who innovated the concept of “predictive analytics”–recommending products to customers based on search history and buying habits. Whether you like the concept or you hate it, the idea has made online commerce more profit rich and efficient, and is making online shopping a better experience for consumers throughout the world.



Top Weekly Ideas and Insights


An Inconvenient Truth:

What Happens When Science Confronts Unsubstantiated Fiction?







 EXISTENTIAL REALITY 

"Humanity Coming of Secular Age"

 - The Last Days of Theism -




Friday, 10 July 2015

China Resorts To Confiscating Investors' Stocks To Stop Bloodbath, & Top Insights




Investors' Insights Comments 


When an economy is built upon dishonesty, and dishonest prices most importantly, an economy’s reckoning is only a matter of time. The further the charade goes on, the worse the reckoning. China’s been going on for a long time.


Now the Chinese government is trying to save its market with more central planning and knob turning. And don’t forget about the guns it has too.



But ultimately the system will erode. It isn’t built on real prices.

Many people in China don’t even really know what honest pricing is. Including in high level policy circles.



In the end, the emperor still has no clothes, but the fraud and dishonesty will only make matters worse for days and years to come. Soon China will collapse - that's inevitable. And with it, they will take most of the financial system with it - that too is inevitable.



Marking the time for integrity, transparency, honesty and substance.


Good Luck; Be Careful Out There



China bans major shareholders from selling their stakes for next six mnths

File photo of an investor taking notes as he watches a board showing stock prices


China’s securities regulator took the drastic step of banning shareholders with stakes of more than 5% from selling shares for the next six months in a bid to halt a plunge in stock prices that is starting to roil global financial markets.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said on its website late on Wednesday that it would deal severely with any shareholders who violated the rule.
The prohibition is also seen applying to foreign investors who hold stakes in Shanghai- or Shenzhen-listed companies, although most of their holdings are below 5%.








China’s stock markets opened down again Thursday morning before making up some ground. Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 3% in the first half hour of trading before reversing course and rising 1.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index opened down just over 1%.








Fear and uncertainty on Wall Street: investors, buckle up for a bumpy ride


A stock investor covers his eyes at a brokerage house in Fuyang in central China's Anhui province.Are we heading for another stock market crash? The signs are ominous. The New York stock exchange – the world’s largest stock market – shut down for three and a half hours due to a mysterious “technical issue” on Wednesday; China’s speculative stock market plunged still further, despite tens of billions of dollars of spending on the part of the government in a futile attempt to halt the carnage; Greece is sailing into uncharted territory and teetering on the brink of leaving the Eurozone; and meanwhile Puerto Rico is mired in its own debt crisis.
Euripides and Sophocles couldn’t have asked for better material for a financial markets melodrama. Little wonder, therefore, that yesterday turned into a day of carnage on Wall Street, from the moment that US stocks prepared to open for trading early in the morning. There may be more to come.







Five Things Everyone Will Be Talking About Today

What we've been reading



This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.











Popular Posts All Time

Learn, win achieve