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Showing posts with label business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label business. Show all posts

Monday, 2 September 2013

Jim Rogers Blog - Banks Stop Printing Artificial Money

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There is one big problem with Jim's statement - Central Banks have alway and will always print money artificially. Why? First: How is money created? Where is it born? Who creates it? The answers to  these questions are actually quite simple. Money is created by virtue of a journal entry by a Central Banker in their books of account. There is little "physical" rhyme or reason for its creation, as the basis for authorizing the entry is a decision made by policy-makers based on the circumstances of the time. So the amount of entry is not determined by a set tried and true formula tied to GDP or any similar economic measure. It is largely arbitrary. 

So the paper you hold in your hands, bank accounts or use to ascribe other assets value is existentially nothing more than the fiat offspring of a Central Banker's accounting entry. It is not tied to national resources or future resource output potential in anyway - that would put  too much science into this mystical journal entry and money printing process. By the way, the more we print the more global stock markets go up as shown:


Global Stock Market Growth Flat J -Curve (Exponential Upwards)




Therein lies the real issue, because as national resources behind the money supply are exponentially depleted by expanding populations, so is the de facto value of each money unit that had ever or will ever be printed.Thus, creating the basis for another exponential J-curve, as there is an inverse relationship between printed money and exponential resource output depletion. (see charts below) More and more printed money is simply needed to preserve the statu quo perceptions and defer social unrest.

Global Money Supply Flat J-Curve (Exponential Upwards) 




Global Resource Depletion Flat J-curve (Exponential Upwards)




Global Population Growth Flat J-Curve (Exponential Upwards)






Debasement in a sense actually started when the very first dollar was printed. The above hockey-stick charts show a fairly clear relationship between the expanding expanding money supply, resource depletion and population growth, leading to two logical questions: What's left? How long will it last?  The chart below uses oil as a surrogate for resources - and as expected the J-curve is inverted to the money, depletion and population J-curves above.



Global OIL Production (Extraction) Declines - Flat J Curve (Trending to Exponential Downwards)





Not only do these charts paint an obviously  bleak picture - the most important observation is that they are all going the wrong way - Exponentially!  And so is the climate right along with it as population growth spurs a J-curve in climate change as well as can be seen in the undernoted chart.



Global Climate Change - Flat J Curve (Exponential Upwards)


Bottom line is that the printing of money actually correlates with the respective J-curves population growth, resource depletion and climate change. While they correlate the printing of money appears to affect everything in the wrong way. But regardless of causation or correlation all these charts are forming J-curves going the wrong way.  But most importantly, they are doing in EXPONENTIALLY!   

Now try explain these simple J-curves to Central Bankers in Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal, Nauru, Japan, Italy, Ireland, and the rest. Money is de jure or legal evidence from the issuing state that it is obliged to pay its holder the stated value of resource outputs through its various agencies. All is fine until there are no further resource outputs because inputs no longer exist for conversion by the nation's economic processes . As we can see in individual real nations noted, as these J-Curves continue to accelerate, the economic effects and value of money diminishes by country, and should ultimately do so in an exponential manner globally.   


What next? Just keep reading the international headlines.


INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

First Financial Insights
September 2, 2013


"Stop Printing Artificial Money"



     

Friday, 30 August 2013

Vehicle Sales Boom in August

 Vehicle Sales Boom in August
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A Short Story



Wow! August vehicle sale are expected to be hitting full stride for the month, coming in at a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.7 million vehicles. That is the highest level in almost seven years. Good news - right? 

The biggest concern is what lies ahead as today's sales are pumped-up by the lowest interest rates for the longest period of time ever. Don't be fooled by 0% financing deals, because that is really a crafty way to move margins between business divisions to effect market pricing to consumers. In the end what counts is the consumer's monthly cash payment, particularly in the months and years ahead.

Like the airline industry there are dark clouds and turbulence on the horizon that will come from an imminent spike in interest rates along with rising oil prices. A one, two punch! Imagine what happens to vehicle sales when interest rates cause monthly payments to double, together with substantive gas pump increases as peak oil consequences unfold? At the same time product production costs will rise dramatically because they are affected by both rates and oil prices. Annual sales have the potential to drop by 25-40%, or more.

Our industry weather forecast calls for  - "expect heavy cloud cover and turbulence as you approach. Slippery runways. It's raining hard on a parade down there" 


How's that for a short story?


INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
August 30, 2013



Interest Rates? Oil Prices? Production Costs? ... Again! 
Who would have thought?




Saturday, 24 August 2013

The Jim Rogers Blog - Commodity Prices Going to Moon


Does this mean we should land on the moon again for bargains? Folks could be waiting there right now looking for our business. Who we wonder?

Commodity prices are ready to shoot upwards whether there is a war in Syria or any big event somewhere else on the planet. Syria is somewhat irrelevant in this regard as markets are poised more on fundamentals to lift skyward.

The world is more fragile today than it was twenty years ago for obvious reasons. More people, fewer resources and wider geo-political tensions and instability. For more worries you may add in climate change, wildfires, water supplies and worst - fewer and fewer pollinating bugs. And that's the war we are really losing sleep over.

Bottom Line: Anyday, anything, or anytime - LIFT OFF ALICE!

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
August 24, 2013

To the Moon...






Thursday, 22 August 2013

The Jim Rogers Blog : Financial Calamity US Dollar Collapse?


Just cannot see eye to eye with Jim on the collapse of the US dollar, albeit the financial calamity is more or less a hangover from the 2008 Meltdown and remains plausible. Indeed we had  forecasted such a collapse two years back, by 2020. Bonds yes; but a currency short is fraught with too many pitfalls.

There are many reasons behind the likely stability embedded in the US dollar in such times. Two are big ones. One,  it will simply win by default because other currencies that are competitive, in any significant way, should be that much worse off in the turbulent economic times ahead. Remember, the US is a Hegemony with about 60 -70% of the world's resources and economies within its influences and/or control. There is little else in terms of a viable surrogate exchange media that could handle the global financial volume and liquidity needs as well. Former communist countries have huge credibility issues to overcome to garner any trust for this role.

But most importantly - they have bigger GUNS! In the end, that may be all that matters. 

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
August 22, 2013 


Pentagon 2020 Outlook:
 Continues to See Strong US Dollar






Friday, 16 August 2013

#APPLE Drifts Without Jobs says Oracle CEO



ellison0812


Many months# ago we actually concluded that without Steve Jobs the company would not be able to repeat or meet the achievements or expectations of its founder. There is an artistic-creative element in people of Steve's character that cannot be replicated by professionally trained managers from Ivy-league business schools. 

Moreover, entrepreneurial vision and drive is a talent few ever configure in a similar way. 

So whether its Ford, Buffet, Carnegie, Gates, Stronich or Jobs, their unique compositions are rare and the companies they build and run are never the same once they move on.

Keeping Apple on the watch list, but our vision for the future remains short-sighted.

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
August 16, 2013




Monday, 12 August 2013

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: #TORONTO CONDO BUBBLE CRASHING - @wallstjournal

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: #TORONTO CONDO BUBBLE CRASHING  
TORONTO CONDO bubble CRASHING – WHAT NEXT? - READ MORE   2008 Meltdown or Japanese Bubble... (read more)

When will they ever learn? Or is it simply in the nature of our species to always create these gigantic credit-driven asset bubbles? And why is it a social phenomenon that no country, culture or region is immune to through-out history? 

From a investment view, we are seriously perturbed about Toronto's Condo Bubble and the possible outcomes that could occur when the bubble further deflates. As a result, we have placed a number of sectors on our watch list; obviously including  retail, financial, property development and construction industries. In the weeks ahead, we will provide further.comments and analysis regarding the much anticipated fall-out with more specific industry assessments.  


Remember also how globalization was sold to us as the best way to improve national economic well-being, standards of living, create jobs and lower risk levels. Now everything is so deeply inter-connected financially, physically and politically, yet these promised improvements seem to be moving us in the opposite direction. Do you think it was all a big lie serving a few special global interests? Do you think that they pulled the wool over the eyes of our political geniuses?  If you do - then you are not alone!


It begs the question - who is really governing sovereign nations given all the operative trade agreements, and organizations, such as the WTO, EU, IMF, World Bank and others, with relegated powers? Have all these supra-constitutional connections watered-down sovereign constitutions so much that national destinies have been moved beyond elected officials' powers? This may explain why Canada patterned its monetary policies after the FED - they have to!


This is a big issue that requires a good deal more analysis and thought, but there are clear hints that "globalization" was just a crafty synonym disguising "annexation". What does that have to do with the price of Condo's in Toronto?


Lots! Just ask its Mayor.   

  

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

First Financial Insights

August 12, 2013




Asset Bubbles 101: 

In the end, remember nothing is...
  




Friday, 9 August 2013

BLOOMBERG - OOPs! - #Japan's Economy Grows Less Than Forecast

(More)


Japan’s Economy Grew Less-Than-Forecast 2.6% Last Quarter

Investment Drops - 
Annualised Growth 2.6% 

Recently folks were applauding the turn around in profits for some of JAPAN INC's biggest exporters, as short-term delusional benefits of its managed currency devaluation jumped earnings in the second quarter, leading some to even proclaim that the two decades of economic decay had finally come to an end. That celebration was short lived, as overall GDP growth for the period, did not meet expectations.

Moreover, business confidence, as measured by capital investment, drifts hesitantly despite improved profits. Consumers can look forward to a possible increase in sales taxes, that certainly cannot add to their feel good levels. Plus, as import costs increase, they can expect their pocket books to be squeezed much more in the months ahead. 

In all, the deflationary overhang is still there as low interest rates cause both consumers and businesses to act cautiously. It is still hard for commercail banks to lend too, because lenders " collateral values" can disappear in an overnight whisper of a rate increase. These internal structural weaknesses play into foreign competitions' hands as they can invest capital more effectively. That's not good for the export business.

At some point, Japan's deflation should disappear with the import of hyper-inflation on materials from other countries, at same time, so should exports. Then what?  Growing global populations and shrinking resources will not work to save this economy from the fix it entered after its financial bubble burst and the finite constraints of a shrinking planet set  in.


INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
August 9, 2013

Thursday, 1 August 2013

The Jim Rogers Blog : WE ARE IN BIG TROUBLE! - There is a huge artificial Boom (video)

The Jim Rogers Blog : WE ARE IN BIG TROUBLE! - There is a huge artificial Boom (video) 

We are right behind Jim on this issue and recommend reminding yourself often and keeping an eye the ball, not getting caught when the trap collapses.
  INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

This is beginning to sound like a chorus line with a song that sings about the coming collapse of almost every kind of asset value. We recently commented in The New York Times that values could collapse by as much as 50% should long rates rise by 2% or more. Readers got mad at us, but it's not our fault, because we did not invent financial mathematics -someone else did! Nor we do believe that these rules are open to negotiation, legislation or persuasion of any kind. They are absolute.


So how did we ever get backed into this corner? Well. you can blame the usual suspects who lost sight of common sense and were "influenced by the political immediacy of their times." Now there is no where to run or hide.


INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

First Financial Insights
August 1, 2013



Remember these guys - Unusual Suspects?



Tuesday, 30 July 2013

The Dr Peter G Kinesa Blog: ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY: UK Wildlife Index

The Dr Peter G Kinesa Blog: ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY: UK Wildlife Index Decli...: (Read More)
ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY:  UK Wildlife Index Decline (1968 -2010)  To the point, forget about all the graphs, ch...

You may think that Peter's comments are absurd, outlandish or just plain funny from an investment, finance and economic point of view. We, on the other hand, view such measures and observations quite seriously. So much so, that in the end we believe that one his upcoming books "Bugonomics - The Silent GDP of Bugs" will far out pace Freakonomics as a best seller. 

Bugs by their nature are existentialists, just as Pete's Economic Doctrine plants itself in this philosophic foundation. For when man is gone, what happens to Bugs? Or is the question worded backwards? Hmm.
Read the book..

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
July 30, 2013

BUGONOMICS - The Silent GDP of Bugs

Monday, 29 July 2013

The Marc Faber Blog (Video): “It’s Gonna End One Day… Through War Or Financial Collapse”

(Read and View More)
 
 
No kidding, we guess Marc's finally starting to figure out what we have been saying for years. Sooner or later the abstract economy's - positive-sum game - is going to have to reconcile with the physical economy - a negative-sum game. The outcome of the imbalance correction will be brutal.
 
Or perhaps Marc picked up a copy of The Limits to Growth and discovered a practical application - Oprah calls it an "ah ha" moment when the penny finally drops.
 
INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
 
July 27, 2013
 
 
When the penny drops...
 

Thursday, 25 July 2013

The Paul Krugman Blog - Detroit, the New Greece

The Paul Krugman Blog  -  Detroit, the New Greece (Read More) 


Streets of Athens, Remember? Circa 1967???

As Dr Kinesa points out in his recent article, there is a lot of analysis and navel-gazing required to sort out the problems of both Greece and Detroit, who share many similarities. By the way, a better title may be "Greece, the New Detroit?"

Why don't we just state the obvious here? That is about the differences between recent economic successes of China and for some time Japan, and failures of centres; such as Detroit, Greece, Portugal and others. Imagine over the years, that the winners actually have had a "economic business plan" that they execute to, by using both free and centralised policies and tactics. ( seems they also better learn and apply MBA thinking?) Meaning that over reliance on "invisible market forces" to attain the optimal economic state is not a panacea, in fact, it is plain foolhardy - results speak for themselves.

Anyway, when a National Business Strategy is employed, it creates a different outcome because it focuses the nation or centre on simple stuff like; What can we do better then others? Where can we build long-term sustainable comparative advantages? And thats where all that weaknesses, strengths, opportunities and threats thinking occurs, breeding realistic paths forward.

Bottom line; we see that the winners are executing successful National Business Strategies that have little to do with whatever is trending in the Schools of Economics. Imagine! 

That's our short take on it - but never forget what you paid for free advice.

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights

July 25, 2013



Streets of Detroit  -  2012
When did it really go Bankrupt???



Saturday, 20 July 2013

Bloomberg BusinessWeek - The Social Media Bubble Deflating

Bloomberg BusinessWeek - The Social Media Bubble is Quietly Deflating


Social networking companies drew a meager 2 percent of Internet venture capital last quarter

Just a few months back, you may recall, along with Jim Rogers, we raised concerns about Facebook and generally the whole social media industry, referring to it as a generational fad and having difficulty seeing how a sustainable business model could be developed. Moreover, whether such tools or derivatives could find useful and profitable transitions into business markets. Guess what? Looks like the markets are tuning into Mr Rogers and ourselves as VC (Venture Capital) funding has plummeted to 2% this past quarter.

As one insider notes; what a business - "thinking about how to make people click ads"  And that pretty well sums up the industry's "Critical Success Factor" and how you build any sort of Sustainable Competitive Advantage around it, remains a puzzle.


Anyway we still believe that the big ticket, high margin objects just simply requires good ole face to face contact -  a little of that human touch!


INVESTORS INSIGHTS - February 18, 2013  

JIM ROGERS - Facebook is not an Investment, it's a Waste of TIME  

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

First Financial Insights
July 20, 2013


Not a Happy Camper


Friday, 19 July 2013

Bloomberg - Spanish 10-Year Bonds Decline as Italian Yield Rises to 4.48%

Bloomberg - Spanish 10-Year Bonds Decline as Italian Yield Rises to 4.48%


In light of our market alert, regarding Portugal's Bonds, earlier this week, along with the growing concern for adverse circumstances in Europe, even more focus is now being given to European Bond Markets. Market activity in these markets may now have greater bearing on the global financial system than US treasuries. No kidding?

Similar to Japan, bond values and rates in the US appear to be hand-cuffed at low levels for some time. Moreover, enjoying the reserve currency status allows the US to gather the loose liquidity in the global system and harbour its flight and fright capital, thereby easing any upward rate pressures. Plus, an interest rate increase state-side would be absolutely devastating to the US economy at this juncture - and just pour gas on a stumbling economy's fires. 

Underlying the European bond markets are chronic diseases that  show no signs of abating - in fact there is growing evidence to the contrary. Like Japan and Middle East countries, Europe suffers from a physical economic overcapacity issue that cannot be resolved by abstructionist economic measures. Limited and declining physical economic inputs can only lead to one result - declining economic outputs. All of which is made worse as populations grow and per capita output consumption ratios thusly sink even further. Bad "Real" News!

Particularly after Cyprus, we are seeing signs of desperate central bankers pulling out devious last stops to cure the terminal economic cancer. The markets in Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal are at the greatest risk of crashing global bond prices. They are "bonded" by a common concern with a staggering rippling potential affecting markets with traumatic head to toe  effects. 

Our main message here - this one ain't over yet; 'cause, "it ain't over, 'til its over"  

INVESTORS INSIGHTS
First Financial Insights
July 19, 2013



A Bonding Crisis - the future is yet to come...




Thursday, 18 July 2013

The New York Times The Prophecies of Maestrodamus Paul Krugman




Comments:




"I know one thing; that I know nothing" Hmm. I think we could all learn from one of Socrates’ last thoughts - but you never know!

Still we could attribute much of our current mess to too many who believe they know - then later we find that even simple notions were somehow forgotten. Or a fog had set in. (- R. S. McNamara).

Despite what may be economic headlines today, Greenspan's legacy may be his contribution to our current low interest rate trap - that has lasted for much too long. Getting out of it could trigger a massive deflation of financial assets - causing an unprecedented ASSET VALUE WRITE-DOWN. Evaporating years of value in moments.

A mere 2% rise in rates, for example, could deflate financial assets by as much as 50% - wiping out the equity boxes of financial intermediaries and banks , while creating massive unfunded pension and insurance fund liabilities on the basis of marked to market accounting calculations. =ing HUGE liquidity CRUNCH.

Moreover, the total value of US federal debt could grow substantively with a mathematical pen stroke, which has little to do with deficits or economic theory and activity. And I don’t even want think about what could happen if rates should revert to levels over their historic mean; it would be devastating.

So it seems that the Maestro knew how get us into this trap, but did not know how to get us out of it - but then again "who knows?" And as far as we know, he's still on first...

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS
Juky 17, 2013


I don't know?




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