LEADERS

International LEADERS Calling Market Crashes Years Ahead
Second to None, Anywhere...

'Warned 2000 tech slide; predicted 2008 meltdown in 2007. Forecasted 2020 global economic collapse in 2011, AND NOW- BY 2050 - THE MOTHER OF ALL CRASHES"

THE #FUTURE #OUTLOOKS - KEY AREAS OF #CONCERN AND #RISK

  Economic and Markets 2023 Outlook WARNING  What Worked for the Past Decades Will Not For The Next WHAT'S COMING - GLOBAL RECESSION? DE...

GLOBAL MARKETS


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Champion, Lead, Inspire

Search This Blog

GREAT BARGAINS; FUN IDEAS

Showing posts with label Dow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dow. Show all posts

Friday, 28 August 2015

China Piles Up Staggering $5 Trillion In Losses & More #Insights

Take the combined size of all stocks traded in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, multiply by two, and you'll get a sense of how much China's market value has slumped since the meltdown started. Shanghai-listed equities erased $5 trillion since reaching a seven-year high in June, half their value, as margin traders closed out bullish bets and concern deepened that valuations were unjustified by the weak economic outlook. 

The four other countries in the BRICS universe have a combined market capitalisation of $2.8 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 


In the year to July, China's customs agency reports that imports from Australia are down by $15bn dollars on the same period last year - a loss which is already equal to 1% of Australia's GDP, and many other countries stand to lose out to similar degrees. China's imports overall are down by 14.6% over 2015. Find out what happens if this decline continues for the rest of the year - or worsens - and how that loss compares to each country's GDP



Eventually, even at near zero interest rates, the amount of debt becomes too high, relative to income. Governments become afraid of adding more debt. Young people find student loans so burdensome that they put off buying homes and cars. The economic “pump” that used to result from rising wages and rising debt slows, slowing the growth of the world economy. With slow economic growth comes low demand for commodities that are used to make homes, cars, factories, and other goods. This slow economic growth is what brings the persistent trend toward low commodity prices experienced in recent years.

A strange thing happened fifteen minutes after stock markets opened for regular trading on Friday, August 21, 2015. At least some people on the nationally prominent MarketWatch website were privileged to see in advance what would prove to be the full-day losses for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the Standard & Poors 500 (SPX) indices. This harbinger or revelation of what was to come occurred six hours and fifteen minutes before the market's close. The uncanny trend projections, or perhaps target prices, were made available while the Dow was down about 180 points -- more than 350 points above its astonishing Friday close.

There is an almost touching faith that markets are rigged when they loft higher, but unrigged when they crash. Who's to say this crash isn't rigged? A few things about this "crash" (11% decline from all time highs now qualifies as a "crash") don't pass the sniff test.


"Unless we recognise that, and recognise that the productivity challenge and the fiscal challenge are intimately linked, and we have to deal with both of them, then we will go on continuing to repeat the mistakes that we've been making and that will get us into a situation that none of us want to be in."
Dr Parkinson earlier told a room of more than 90 corporate, community and academic leaders that productivity reform could not be detached from fiscal reform.




The ‘Black Monday' stock market turmoil on 24 August saw the FTSE 100 index plummet 14% below its peak of almost 7,000 points in February.

Investors across the globe began panic selling stocks, particularly in commodities, amid fears of the much anticipated growth slowdown in China.
While about £96bn was wiped off share values in the UK blue chip index, the Dow fell 1,000 points on opening and the Shanghai Composite experienced total losses of 35% since June.



Hymans Robertson put the total pain for UK defined benefit (DB) schemes at a staggering £30bn surge in aggregate deficits in a day, as equities values and bond yields headed south. 



Commentators are divided on whether the event was merely a market correction or an indication of more chaos to come.

But what many agree on is the fact that China is no longer the world's economic growth engine, posing the question of where future investment returns will come from.




Learning Success: 


APPLY Tips From The Best







Image result for sir richard bransonSir Richard BransonVirgin Group – Anyone who owns more than 400 companies and is worth billions of dollars is clearly doing many things right. I admire Richard Branson’s tenacity, and I admire his personal brand



 



Friday, 14 August 2015

Setting Stage To Mirror Past Meltdowns - No Kidding, & More Top Insights





Image result for market cr5ash 2008


Equity Markets Show Signs of 1997 and 2007


On the whole, US economic data releases last week were disappointing. The advance estimate of GDP for Q2 showed only +2.3% real growth which was below the consensus of 2.5%. We do need to be careful in using this data as there are a lot of gaps to still be filled in and therefore there will be revisions. Perhaps the main point here is that the optimists were looking for a large rebound from the dismal Q1, and frankly, the rebound looks to have been modest according to the preliminary estimate. Also, consumer sentiment data showed consumers to be more downbeat than expected and the employment cost index (a good proxy for wages) was way below expected.

Untitled

As can be seen in the chart below of Nominal US GDP Growth, the 4% growth achieved post the last crisis is way below the growth achieved in previous recoveries, especially considering the ultra-easy monetary policies used by the Fed. This low nominal growth matters as it will be seen over time in lower earnings potential for US companies which will offset the support given by low interest rates. 


Figure 2. Dome constructed using Leonardo Sticks
Figure 1





Image result for gail tverbergMy name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to inadequate supply.

Think Apple is stock market gold? Think China is the new economic superpower? You thought wrong. In the years since losing Steve Jobs, Apple has failed to innovate while engaging in unparalleled corporate arrogance. China meanwhile is leveraged to the hilt at the same time their government is criminalizing liquidation. Today Robert and Kim talk with Bert Dohmen about these economic threats and why everyone is ignoring them.


Indeed, it is our job to guide investors through rough waters in the markets. When we become contrarian, there is a good reason for that. Gold, silver, and miners are undervalued. The correction has been too long, too sharp. Over time, a mean reversal will take place. Gradually increasing positions in undervalued assets is what secular investors should do in order to tap into the potential of the market.



Image result for jetsons equipment
Toshiba is not a U.S. company of course, but the firm does have an ADR trading on the pink sheets in the U.S. under symbol TOSYY and TOSBF. Normally, pink sheet investments are very risky and have to be approached with extreme caution. That rule is not really as relevant though when dealing with enormous multinational firms like Toshiba. While the issues are still not as liquid as most exchange traded stocks, at least with an ADR for a sizeable firm, investors get the comfort of knowing that their investment is based on a stable company with real profits.





Conditions in the Pacific Ocean suggest that what has formed there is as big as anything seen since 1997-98, a system that brought the term “El Niño” into popular culture and which is remembered for the catastrophic amounts of water it dumped on California, leading to flooding and mudslides.
California receives most of its precipitation in the winter, and that is when the effects of a potent El Niño system are felt.

Japan economy seen shrinking in Q2 in setback for "Abenomics"


TOKYO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Japan's economy likely shrank in April-June as exports slumped and consumers cut back on spending, a Reuters poll showed, boding ill for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policy drive to lift the economy out of decades of deflation.

China's economic slowdown and its impact on its trade-reliant Asian neighbors have also heightened the chance that any rebound in growth in July-September will be modest, analysts say.

Growing signs that Japan's economy is at a standstill are clouding the outlook for the premier's "Abenomics" programme aimed at ending 15 years of deflation with bold monetary and fiscal stimulus to boost growth.

It may also rekindle market expectations that the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus again to prop up the economy, though many central bankers remain wary of acting any time soon.

Learning Success: 

APPLY Tips From The Best







PepsiCo, another of 100 Most Powerful Women - Forbes, has not only led her company to record financial results but is making strides to move PepsiCo in a healthier direction, leading the courageous charge to shed traditional fast food properties and to replace them with initiatives to supply healthier foods. She is deeply caring and committed as a senior executive. She is a fun-loving executive as well—she played lead guitar for an all-woman rock band in college, loved to play cricket, and is known to sing karaoke and perform at corporate gatherings to this day. Yes, I have been known to relate to her fun-loving spirit as a senior executive as well.


Top Weekly Ideas and Insights

An Inconvenient Truth

"Eurasia BIG Bang" 


What Happens When Geo-Political Shifts Occur?



EXISTENTIAL REALITY 


"Humanity's Coming of Age"

 - Last Days: Hegemony or Survival -


Monday, 10 August 2015

Dow Losing Streak Ain't Over 'Til Its Over, & More Top Insights





Dow 7-day losing streak worst since debt-ceiling crisis



U.S. stocks closed lower Friday, with the Dow industrials hitting its worst losing streak since 2011’s debt-ceiling crisis, after the jobs report matched economists’ estimates, boosting the chances for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September.
The nonfarm-payrolls report showed that the U.S. gained 215,000 jobs in July, largely matching expectations, and the unemployment rate stayed pat at 5.3%.

The solid employment data offers little reason to upend Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s plan to lift rates, possibly at the next two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which begins on Sept. 16.
“The jobs report doesn’t increase the likelihood that the [Federal Reserve] will raise rates in September, but it also doesn’t decrease the likelihood,” Randy Frederick, managing director of Schwab Center for Financial Research, told MarketWatch.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.27%  declined 46.37 points, or 0.3%, to 17,373.38, after having been down as many as 141 points earlier in the session. With seven straight days of losses, it marks the longest losing streak for the index since the height of the debt-ceiling drama in the summer of 2011.

Banks, miners drive Australian share market collapse



The Australian sharemarket dived again today as banking stocks tumbled in the wake of ANZ’s capital raising while trading was also soured by resource shares after a major writedown from explosives and blasting systems firm Orica.
At the 4.15pm (AEST) official market close, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 was 135.3 points, or 2.41 per cent, lower at 5474.8, while the broader All Ordinaries index had fallen 127.8 points, or 2.28 per cent, to 5472.3.
The result put the ASX200 at about 3.7 below last Friday’s close of 5699.2, more than offsetting last week’s gains of 2.4 per cent.
The market fell initially on weaker banking stocks as ANZ slumped sharply. The lender emerged from a trading halt this morning after announcing a $3 billion capital raising yesterday.



When China's tinderbox economy implodes, who will be left to bid up the world's surplus commodities and real estate?
After 30 years of torrid expansion, perhaps the single most consequential factor in China’s economy is how much of it is a “black box”: a system with visible inputs and outputs whose internal workings are opaque.
There are number of reasons for this lack of transparency:
1. Official statistics reflect what officials want to project, not the unfiltered data.
2. Policy decisions are made behind closed doors by a handful of leaders.
3. There is little institutional history of transparency.
4. Many important statistics are self-reported and prone to distortion.
5. Large sectors of the economy are informal and difficult if not impossible to measure accurately.
6. Endemic corruption distorts critical economic yardsticks.
7. There is little historical precedent to guide policy makers and individual investors.




King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud

Saudi Arabia will start running into trouble within two years or face draconian austerity. Social spending is the glue that binds a medieval Wahhabi regime midst unrest among the Shia minority, attacks from ISIS, and the invasion of Yemen. Diplomatic spending is what underpins the Saudi sphere of influence in a Middle East version of Europe's Thirty Year War














Germany persuaded European leaders to rally more firmly around what might be called the Berlin consensus by a combination of patient diplomacy and clever brinkmanship and by exploiting alarm over the antics of Greece’s leaders








China's July exports slump 8%, raises pressure for more stimulus


Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than expected, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will be forced to roll out more stimulus to support the world's second-largest economy.
Imports also fell heavily from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts but suggesting domestic demand might be too feeble to offset the weaker global demand for China's exports.




Members of the Brazil's Movement Against Corruption bang on pots and pans in protest against President Dilma Rousseff, during her televised speech.
Brasilia: Allies of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff have turned to her opponents to talk about filling what they see as a damaging leadership vacuum after losing confidence in her ability to pull the country out of an economic tailspin, party insiders said on Thursday.

Brazil's worst economic downturn in 25 years has undercut confidence in Ms Rousseff's leadership and raised the spectre of her impeachment just six months into her second term.


Shale Gas Reality Check



In October 2014, Post Carbon Institute published the results of what likely remains the most thorough independent analysis of U.S. shale gas and tight oil production ever conducted. The process of drilling for shale gas and tight oil is known colloquially as “fracking” and has drawn a great deal of controversy—considered by some as an energy revolution and others as an environmental and human health catastrophe.


shale-gas-reality-check-blog-top




Top Weekly Ideas and Insights

An Inconvenient Truth


"Eurasia BIG Bang" 

What Happens When Geo-Political Shifts Occur?





EXISTENTIAL REALITY 

"Humanity's Coming of Age"

 - Last Days: Hegemony or Survival -






Popular Posts All Time

Learn, win achieve